Hie Joo Ahn and Leland E. FarmerWe develop a model of the individual term structure of inflation expectations across forecasting horizons. Using the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we decompose disagreement about inflation expectations into individuals’ long-term beliefs, private information, and public information. We find that in normal times, long-horizon disagreement is predominantly driven by individuals’ long-term beliefs, while short-horizon disagreement stems from private information.

Negotiations over reforms to the Reserve Bank of Australia this week took an unprecedented turn when the Greens demanded the government use its reserve powers to immediately cut interest rates.

Labor had initially hoped to pass the reforms with the support of the Coalition. However, after a year of negotiations, they decided against it. Labor’s attempts to salvage the reforms by negotiating with the Greens now seem doomed to failure.

Toni Ahnert, Sebastian Doerr, Nicola Pierri, and Yannick TimmerWe study the importance of information technology (IT) in banking for entrepreneurship. Guided by a parsimonious model, we establish that job creation by young firms is stronger in US counties more exposed to banks with greater IT adoption. We present evidence consistent with banks' IT adoption spurring entrepreneurship through a collateral channel: entrepreneurship increases by more in IT-exposed counties when house prices rise.

PeopleImages.com - Yuri A/ShutterstockNeuroticism is one of the Big Five personality traits, characterised by a tendency to experience negative emotions like anxiety, fear, and frustration. Individuals with high levels of neuroticism are often more sensitive to stress and more likely to react negatively to challenges.