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Reputation for Confidence

11/04/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

We model how a central bank communicates its noisy forecasts (forward guidance) while taking into account its own uncertainty (confidence) and the public’s perception of the bank’s uncertainty (reputation for confidence). This creates a mismatch between the public and central bank’s interpretation of the bank announcement which induces the bank to communicate with partial transparency and deliberate imprecision. Moreover, with higher confidence (lower reputation) announcements are more precise.

This Trillionaire Economy Thrived in a Global Order Trump Is Ditching

11/04/2025 New York Times USA

Poland and other countries across Europe that found economic success in an era of collaboration are now facing a crumbling of international alliances.

Are Wealth Taxes the Best Way to Tax the Ultra Rich?

11/03/2025 New York Times USA

Plans for a wealth tax, which is dividing France, have gotten popular around the world as inequality has widened and government debt has risen.

Will Trump’s Tariff Deal Tilt the Playing Field Back Toward China?

11/03/2025 New York Times USA

The president’s trade truce with China has lowered U.S. tariffs to a level that could pause a longer-term effort to reduce America’s dependence on Beijing.

Congress has been dodging responsibility for tariffs for decades – now the Supreme Court will decide how far presidents can go alone

11/03/2025 The Conversation USA

On Nov. 5, the U.S. Supreme Court will hear one of the most consequential trade cases in decades. The justices will decide whether a president can rely on a Cold War–era emergency law, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, to impose sweeping import duties on a vast share of what the United States buys from abroad.

Supreme Court Confronts Trump and His Tariffs in Test of Presidential Power

11/03/2025 New York Times USA

The justices face a so-called legitimacy dilemma as they deal with a tricky legal dispute and a president who has made clear he would view defeat as a personal insult.

Private equity firms are snapping up mobile home parks − and driving out the residents who can least afford to lose them

11/03/2025 The Conversation USA

In mobile home parks, like this one in Fairfax, Va., residents often own the home itself but rent the lot where the home sits. Michael Williamson/The Washington Post via Getty ImagesOne of America’s most affordable paths to homeownership is slipping away.

Investors prefer ‘I’ over ‘we’ when CEOs apologize

11/03/2025 The Conversation News & Comments

When corporate crises hit, the public looks to the CEO. From product recalls to workplace discrimination, to customer mistreatment scandals, CEOs are often thrust into the spotlight and forced to apologize.

But do the exact words they choose really matter?

Investors prefer ‘I’ over ‘we’ when CEOs apologize

11/03/2025 The Conversation USA

But do the exact words they choose really matter?

Banking on assumptions? How banks model deposit maturities

11/03/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

How do banks manage the behavioural maturity of non-maturing deposits (NMDs)? Using a rich and confidential dataset, we investigate how banks model deposit maturities based on internal assumptions. Although NMDs are contractually floating-rate liabilities with zero maturity, banks reallocate them across different maturity buckets using models that reflect past customer behaviour. Notably, only 20% of NMDs are treated as having zero maturity, while about 10% are assigned maturities beyond seven years. We assess whether these modelling assumptions align with banks’ deposit structures.

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