Ricardo's threads | Nothing contributes so much to the prosperity and happiness of a country as high profits

From Brussels to Bangkok: how investment funds transmit financial spillovers

10/06/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

We explore whether investment funds transmit spillovers from local shocks to financial markets in other economies. As a laboratory we consider shocks to financialmarket beliefs about the probability of a rare, euro-related disaster and their spillovers to Asian sovereign debt markets. Given their geographic distance from and relatively limited macroeconomic exposure to the euro area, these markets are an ideal testing ground a priori stacking the deck against finding evidence for investment funds transmitting spillovers from euro disaster risk shocks.

How do rising temperatures affect inflation expectations?

10/06/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Global temperatures are rising at an alarming pace and public awareness of climate change is increasing, yet little is known about how these developments affect consumer expectations. We address this gap by conducting a series of experiments within a large-scale, population-representative survey of euro area consumers. We randomly assign consumers to hypothetical global temperature change scenarios, after which we elicit their expectations for inflation and key macroeconomic indicators under these conditions.

Historical American Political Finance Data at the National Archives: A Preface to the INET Edition

10/04/2025 Ineteconomics Analysis

INET’s new data archive of historical political finance records at the National Archives marks a major step toward filling this factual void. This INET Working Paper outlines what users need to know to navigate the archive effectively and locate the data they require.

Unlocking America’s Political Finance History: Campaign Data from the National Archives

10/04/2025 Ineteconomics Analysis

INET’s new data archive of historical political finance records at the National Archives assembles all campaign finance reports filed by political parties and presidential candidates up to 1974, the year before the Federal Election Commission was established.

Green notice 2025/01

10/03/2025 Bank of England Central banks

Green notices cover significant and/or significant proposals for Bank of England reporting. If any of these proposals are finalised and are to be implemented, they will appear in a statistical notice.

Jobs Report Withheld by Shutdown Leaves Economists Guessing

10/03/2025 New York Times USA

Policymakers have entered uncharted territory without employment data that the government withheld because of its shutdown.

Minutes of the Meeting of the Court of Directors held on 24 July 2025

10/03/2025 Bank of England Central banks

The Bank's Court of Directors acts as a unitary board, setting the organisation's strategy and budget and taking key decisions on resourcing and appointments. Required to meet a minimum seven times per year, it has five executive members from the Bank and up to nine non-executive members.

Update from the Chair of Court David Roberts: Sir Ron Kalifa

10/03/2025 Bank of England Central banks

Update on Sir Ron Kalifa

The AI Bubble and the U.S. Economy: How Long Do ‘Hallucinations’ Last?

10/02/2025 Ineteconomics Analysis

This paper argues that (i) we have reached “peak GenAI” in terms of current Large Language Models (LLMs); scaling (building more data centers and using more chips) will not take us further to the goal of “Artificial General Intelligence” (AGI); returns are diminishing rapidly; (ii) the AI-LLM industry and the larger U.S. economy are experiencing a speculative bubble, which is about to burst.

The AI Bubble and the U.S. Economy: How Long Do “Hallucinations” Last?

10/02/2025 Ineteconomics Analysis

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