The heterogenous transmission of monetary policy to household credit

11/12/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Monetary policy affects household credit heterogeneously through multiple channels. On the supply side, monetary policy tightening is typically thought to have a more adverse effect on lower-income households. The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey supports this assumption, with lower-income households reporting tighter constraints on credit access and higher consumer loan rejection rates than households with higher incomes during the recent tightening period.

The 2021-23 high inflation episode and inequality: insights from the Consumer Expectations Survey

11/12/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This article uses data from the Consumer Expectations Survey to examine the inflation episode of 2021-23, the mortgage rate responses and the perceived and actual effects of these developments on inequality. Public perceptions of inequality rose sharply during the inflation surge, with 73% of households reporting an increase. Cost-of-living pressures were cited as the main driver. By contrast, standard measures of income, wealth and consumption inequality calculated using data from the survey remained broadly stable in the euro area between 2022 and 2025.

Red Tech and American Politics: Nick French Interviews Thomas Ferguson

11/11/2025 Ineteconomics Analysis

Venture-backed “tech capital” is reshaping U.S. politics through campaign finance, platform gatekeeping, defense/AI procurement, and policy entrepreneurship. In an interview with Nick French, INET's Research Director Thomas Ferguson discusses these channels of influence, examining their macro-distributional consequences, and outlining guardrails to restore democratic accountability and broadly shared gains.
Nick French

Shifts in OPEC+ behaviour and downside risks to oil prices

11/11/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Oil prices have declined in recent months owing to a persistent oversupply in the market. A key driver has been a shift in the stance of OPEC+. The group has been increasing oil supply at a rapid pace despite already low prices, marking a clear departure from its historical role as a market stabiliser. A similar shift in behaviour occurred in 2014, when oil prices declined sharply and remained persistently low. This box evaluates the risk of a similar scenario unfolding today.

Joining forces: why banks syndicate credit

11/11/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Banks can grant loans to firms bilaterally or in syndicates. We study this choice by combining bilateral loan data with syndicated loan data. We show that loan size alone does not adequately explain syndication. Instead, banks’ ability to manage risks and firm riskiness drive the choice to syndicate. Banks are more likely to syndicate loans if their risk-bearing capacity is low and if screening and monitoring come at a high cost. Syndicated loans are more expensive and more sensitive to loan risk than bilateral loans.

A machine learning approach to real time identification of turning points in monetary aggregates M1 and M3

11/11/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Monetary aggregates provide valuable information about the monetary policy transmission and the business cycle. This paper applies machine learning methods, namely Learning Vector Quantisation (LVQ) and its distinction-sensitive extension (DSLVQ), to identify turning points in euro area M1 and M3. We benchmark performance against the Bry–Boschan algorithm and standard classifiers. Our results show that LVQ detects M1 turning points with only a three-month delay, halving the six-month confirmation lag of Bry–Boschan dating.

Joining forces: why banks syndicate credit

11/11/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Banks can grant loans to firms bilaterally or in syndicates. We study this choice by combining bilateral loan data with syndicated loan data. We show that loan size alone does not adequately explain syndication. Instead, banks’ ability to manage risks and firm riskiness drive the choice to syndicate. Banks are more likely to syndicate loans if their risk-bearing capacity is low and if screening and monitoring come at a high cost. Syndicated loans are more expensive and more sensitive to loan risk than bilateral loans.

A machine learning approach to real time identification of turning points in monetary aggregates M1 and M3

11/11/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Monetary aggregates provide valuable information about the monetary policy transmission and the business cycle. This paper applies machine learning methods, namely Learning Vector Quantisation (LVQ) and its distinction-sensitive extension (DSLVQ), to identify turning points in euro area M1 and M3. We benchmark performance against the Bry–Boschan algorithm and standard classifiers. Our results show that LVQ detects M1 turning points with only a three-month delay, halving the six-month confirmation lag of Bry–Boschan dating.

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