Christopher Gust, Edward Herbst, and David López-SalidoWe develop a finite-horizon planning model in which firms choose how far ahead to plan when setting prices. Planning further ahead improves a firm's pricing decision but requires cognitive effort.
Green notices cover significant and/or significant proposals for Bank of England reporting. If any of these proposals are finalised and are to be implemented, they will appear in a statistical notice.
We show that monetary policy transmission is shaped not only by a sector’s own financial frictions but also by those prevailing in the broader production network. The latter, indirect frictions amplify the output and price effects of monetary policy and empirically dominate the direct ones. The amplification results from a downstream demand channel, as customers respond to tighter policy by purchasing fewer inputs. This is partly offset by an upstream cost channel, reflecting that suppliers raise prices to protect margins when financing costs rise.
This paper introduces reduced-form macroeconometric tools, emphasising quantile regression models, to identify key risk drivers for the euro area economy and assess risks around the baseline ECB/Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area inflation and growth. The analysis uses a large number of risk factors, going beyond the usual financial factors, employing a sequential selection approach with robustness checks.
We show that monetary policy transmission is shaped not only by a sector’s own financial frictions but also by those prevailing in the broader production network. The latter, indirect frictions amplify the output and price effects of monetary policy and empirically dominate the direct ones. The amplification results from a downstream demand channel, as customers respond to tighter policy by purchasing fewer inputs. This is partly offset by an upstream cost channel, reflecting that suppliers raise prices to protect margins when financing costs rise.
This box assesses the scope for euro area governments to adopt compensatory fiscal measures against the backdrop of the recent energy shock. It examines the available fiscal space, reviews the discretionary fiscal support provided so far, and assesses whether the current inflation environment has generated additional revenues that could partially finance current and future measures.
This box assesses the anchoring of longer-term inflation expectations following the recent energy price shock using level, higher-moment and shock-sensitivity measures from surveys of consumers, firms and professional forecasters. A holistic approach reflecting the structurally different expectation patterns, uncertainty levels and biases of these different agents yields three main findings.
Have labour market prospects deteriorated more for young workers than for the aggregate labour market? This box analyses labour market developments across age and skill groups in relation to economic activity. It shows that in recent quarters young workers have indeed faced a more difficult job market.
This box introduces the European Central Bank Broad Intermediation Gauge (ECB-BIG) index, a new indicator designed to provide a timely assessment of intermediation conditions in the euro area. The ECB-BIG index summarises information from a large set of variables covering bank and non-bank credit conditions, and complements indicators of more narrowly defined financial conditions. It also provides insights into the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy by measuring the impact of credit shocks on investment.
Economic uncertainty – the extent to which households, firms, investors and policymakers find it difficult to assess the economic outlook – has increased markedly in recent years with successive geopolitical and trade policy shocks. This article reviews recent developments in various proxies for uncertainty and shows that metrics capturing geopolitical and trade policy uncertainty have remained persistently elevated. The adverse impact of uncertainty shocks on business investment is typically larger and more persistent than the effect on private consumption.
