Sriya Anbil, Sebastian Infante, Zeynep SenyuzIn an ample-reserves framework, administered rates anchor money markets but suppress information from unsecured interbank trading. We recover that information by isolating the small interbank segment of the federal funds market.
Celso Brunetti, Jeffery H. Harris, Ioannis SpyridopoulosNo, in the mortgage market. Using confidential micro-level data combining mortgage contracts with credit and repayment records for 44 million loans spanning 5,000 bank mergers over nearly three decades, we find no changes to mortgage rates, approval rates, or delinquency rates. Local mortgage markets remain remarkably competitive despite consolidation, averaging over 100 active lenders in each county every post-merger quarter.
Eric EngstromIn January 2012, the Federal Reserve began publishing the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) "dot plot," revealing FOMC participants' projections for the federal funds rate. This paper documents a dual role for SEP projections in the formation of private interest-rate expectations. On one hand, SEP projections contain valuable information, achieving lower forecast errors than consensus surveys, VAR models, and several market-based measures at many horizons.
This article examines the drivers and macroeconomic implications of the recent significant expansion of the euro area labour force, which reached a record high of 173 million people in 2025. The increase reflects rising labour force participation across demographic groups and sustained net migration, with older, more educated and foreign workers accounting for much of the growth.
This box shows that older workers have contributed significantly to euro area employment growth in recent years, largely because they are retiring later. The share of retired individuals in the total population shows little sensitivity to the economic cycle, but has decreased steadily over the past two decades, with this decline having shifted more towards older age groups. The share of retirees is still falling among individuals in their early to mid-60s and appears likely to also do so among older age groups.
We empirically analyse the role of judgement in assigning overall scores by the euro area supervisors as part of the yearly Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP), which evaluates banks’ risks and sets supervisory actions. We also analyse its role in shaping the drivers of the Pillar 2 capital requirement (P2R) that banks must fulfil. We find that supervisors actively adjust the weight of the components of the overall score to reflect qualitative information, thereby smoothing fluctuations in the final assessment.
We examine whether banks incorporate firm-level biodiversity risk into their lending decisions. Using a large sample of syndicated loans matched to firm-level biodiversity risk measures, we document that borrowers with higher biodiversity risk face significantly higher loan spreads. Evidence on loan volumes is weaker, suggesting that banks primarily adjust along the pricing margin rather than restricting credit supply.
We examine whether banks incorporate firm-level biodiversity risk into their lending decisions. Using a large sample of syndicated loans matched to firm-level biodiversity risk measures, we document that borrowers with higher biodiversity risk face significantly higher loan spreads. Evidence on loan volumes is weaker, suggesting that banks primarily adjust along the pricing margin rather than restricting credit supply.
We empirically analyse the role of judgement in assigning overall scores by the euro area supervisors as part of the yearly Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP), which evaluates banks’ risks and sets supervisory actions. We also analyse its role in shaping the drivers of the Pillar 2 capital requirement (P2R) that banks must fulfil. We find that supervisors actively adjust the weight of the components of the overall score to reflect qualitative information, thereby smoothing fluctuations in the final assessment.
Using U.S. and Euro area data, we document that (i) the pass-through of energy prices to inflation is state-dependent - stronger when supply chain uncertainty is elevated – and (ii) in such states, energy prices become more informative about logistical conditions. We develop a model in which firms combine energy and a specialized input transported through a capacity-constrained transportation network. When congestion binds, energy remains available in local markets at a premium, whereas the specialized input is subject to delivery delays.
