Central banks

Private equity beyond the target: how buyouts reshape supply chains

The impact of private equity buyouts on target firms is well documented, yet empirical evidence on the impact of buyouts across the supply chain remains scarce. We address this gap by using unique production network data to examine how supply chains contribute to the ability of private equity investors to create and extract value. We show that, on average, suppliers of firms backed by private equity outperform their peers because of increased demand for inputs from customers backed by private equity – rather than alternative mechanisms such as knowledge spillovers.

Monitoring banks’ vulnerabilities using stressed depletion indices

We introduce two indicators to track the build-up of vulnerabilities in the euro area banking sector on a quarterly basis by leveraging the information collected in EU-wide solvency stress tests. First, we introduce an indicator of conditional capital depletion, the Stress Vulnerability Index (SVI), which quantifies potential losses under adverse scenarios when tail credit risk is highest. Second, we introduce an indicator of earnings vulnerability, the Profitability Vulnerability Index (PVI), which assesses the capacity of the banking sector to generate capital organically.

Does shareholder diversification enhance firm investment resilience? Evidence from the euro area

This paper develops novel firm-level measures of shareholder geographical concentration and examines how elevated home bias in equity holdings affects investment resilience in the euro area. We combine security-level holdings data from the ECB’s Securities Holdings Statistics (SHS-S) with firm-level financial-statement data from Compustat, and document that equity ownership remains strongly concentrated domestically, with limited cross-border diversification within the monetary union.

Understanding inflation: insights from the term structure of inflation risks

This paper investigates the information content of the term structure of inflation risks and its usefulness for understanding inflation dynamics. Using prices of traded zero-coupon inflation caps and floors, we develop a robust non-parametric methodology, combined with a Student’s t-copula, to estimate spot and forward risk-neutral densities at short-, medium-, and long-term horizons, i.e., long-horizon risks are identified from liquid instruments alone, at daily frequency, without forward-starting contracts.

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