Central banks

FEDS Paper: Government Debt, Limited Foresight, and Longer-term Interest Rates

05/03/2024 Federal Reserve Central banks

Christopher Gust and Arsenios SkaperdasWe study the relationship between government debt and interest rates in an environment where financial market participants have limited foresight about the future path of government debt. We show that limited foresight substantially attenuates estimates of the effect of government debt on longer-term yields relative to the benchmark of rational expectations often used in empirical analysis.

Monetary policy strategies to navigate post-pandemic inflation: an assessment using the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model

04/26/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

We evaluate how the euro area economy would have performed since mid-2021 under alternative monetary policy strategies. We use the ECB’s workhorse estimated DSGE model and contrast actual policy conduct against alternative strategies which differ in their ”lower-for-longer” commitment as well as policymaker preferences regarding inflation and output volatility.

Macro and micro of external finance premium and monetary policy transmission

04/26/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

We establish basic facts about the external finance premium. Tens of millions of individual loan contracts extended to euro area firms allow studying the determinants of the external finance premium at the country, bank, firm, and contract levels of disaggregation. At the country level, the variance in the premium is closely linked to sovereign spreads, which are important in understanding financial amplification mechanisms. However, country-level differences only explain half of the total variance.

Monetary policy strategies to navigate post-pandemic inflation: an assessment using the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model

04/26/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

We evaluate how the euro area economy would have performed since mid-2021 under alternative monetary policy strategies. We use the ECB’s workhorse estimated DSGE model and contrast actual policy conduct against alternative strategies which differ in their ”lower-for-longer” commitment as well as policymaker preferences regarding inflation and output volatility.

Macro and micro of external finance premium and monetary policy transmission

04/26/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

We establish basic facts about the external finance premium. Tens of millions of individual loan contracts extended to euro area firms allow studying the determinants of the external finance premium at the country, bank, firm, and contract levels of disaggregation. At the country level, the variance in the premium is closely linked to sovereign spreads, which are important in understanding financial amplification mechanisms. However, country-level differences only explain half of the total variance.

The reformed EU fiscal framework – potential macroeconomic implications for the euro area

04/25/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

Following the European Commission’s legislative proposals of April 2023, the ECOFIN Council reached an agreement on the reform of the fiscal rules underpinning the EU Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) on 20 December 2023. This box provides a preliminary assessment of the potential macroeconomic effects of the EU fiscal framework reform over the horizon of the March 2024 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area.

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