Viktors StebunovsA cornerstone of the law-and-finance literature is that stronger institutions reduce financial intermediation costs. Using global data on cross-border payment costs, I show this relationship can reverse in heavily regulated sectors. Anti-money laundering risks have larger cost effects in advanced economies with strong enforcement than in developing countries with weak enforcement, despite the former having lower underlying risks.
Rehim KilicThis paper investigates whether the “virtue of complexity” (VoC), documented in equity return prediction, extends to exchange rate forecasting. Using nonlinear Ridge regressions with Random Fourier Features (Ridge–RFF), we compare the predictive performance of complex models against linear regression and the robust random walk benchmark.
What do the luxury sector and the automotive sector have in common? Until recently, even asking the question would have seemed incongruous, given the apparent dissimilarity between brands engaged in mass production in search of economies of scale and those based on lavish spending and limited editions. The arrival of Luca de Meo (formerly of Renault) at the head of Kering signals a change for the group founded by French entrepreneur François-Henri Pinault, but also for the entire sector. Is playtime officially over?
How large are the distributional effects of monetary policy in the euro area? Does heterogeneity matter for monetary policy? We answer these questions based on the results of research projects conducted at the ECB under the aegis of a dedicated research task force. A monetary policy easing causes a temporary reduction in consumption inequality; this is the case for both conventional and unconventional monetary policy.
This study introduces a novel approach to dictionary-based sentiment analysis that extracts valuable insights from economic newspaper articles in the euro area without requiring article translation. We develop sentiment indices that accurately measure economic, labour, and inflation perceptions in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain using native-language texts. The aggregation of these country-specific sentiments provides a reliable indicator for the euro area as a whole, demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach in several nowcasting and forecasting experiments.
In surveys with information provision experiments, researchers can observe how people change beliefs, and sometimes also actions, after having been confronted with information. This article interprets information provision experiments from the perspective of the theory of rational inattention, discussing what survey findings tell us about economic behaviour outside the survey and deriving implications for central bank communication.
Hughes discusses his recent book Marketcrafters, and how markets are deliberately built with outcomes that can serve the public good – or not. He uses this lens to unpack today’s economic flashpoints, from the Fed to crypto to climate.
Once considered a universal good, empathy now divides as much as it unites. Empathy has long been viewed as a straightforward strength in leadership, but it has recently become a political flashpoint.
Vitaly M. Bord, Agnes Kovacs, and Patrick MoranIn the United States, credit card companies frequently use machine learning algorithms to proactively raise credit limits for borrowers. In contrast, an increasing number of countries have begun to prohibit credit limit increases initiated by banks rather than consumers.
