European Central Bank

Interest rate control and the transmission of monetary policy

04/02/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

We study how short-term interest rate volatility affects the transmission of monetary policy. To identify exogenous changes in volatility, we exploit the pronounced heteroskedasticity visible in the time-series of euro area short-term rates over the past two and a half decades. Interacting the exogenous variation in volatility with high-frequency-identified monetary policy shocks, we find that increases in volatility dampen the effects of monetary policy on output and prices.

Interest rate control and the transmission of monetary policy

04/02/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

We study how short-term interest rate volatility affects the transmission of monetary policy. To identify exogenous changes in volatility, we exploit the pronounced heteroskedasticity visible in the time-series of euro area short-term rates over the past two and a half decades. Interacting the exogenous variation in volatility with high-frequency-identified monetary policy shocks, we find that increases in volatility dampen the effects of monetary policy on output and prices.

Word2Prices: embedding central bank communications for inflation prediction

04/01/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Word embeddings are vectors of real numbers associated with words, designed to capture semantic and syntactic similarity between the words in a corpus of text. We estimate the word embeddings of the European Central Bank’s introductory statements at monetary policy press conferences by using a simple natural language processing model (Word2Vec), only based on the information and model parameters available as of each press conference. We show that a measure based on such embeddings contributes to improve core inflation forecasts multiple quarters ahead.

Word2Prices: embedding central bank communications for inflation prediction

04/01/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Word embeddings are vectors of real numbers associated with words, designed to capture semantic and syntactic similarity between the words in a corpus of text. We estimate the word embeddings of the European Central Bank’s introductory statements at monetary policy press conferences by using a simple natural language processing model (Word2Vec), only based on the information and model parameters available as of each press conference. We show that a measure based on such embeddings contributes to improve core inflation forecasts multiple quarters ahead.

Geopolitical risk and its implications for macroprudential policy

04/01/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This article explores the link between geopolitical risk and bank solvency and discusses the potential implications for macroprudential policy. Drawing on 120 years of data, analysis reveals that heightened geopolitical risk has been associated with lower bank capitalisation over the past century. This effect can arise through multiple economic and financial channels, including reduced economic activity, surging inflation, increased sovereign risk, and shifts in capital flows and asset prices.

The impact of regional institutional quality on economic growth and resilience in the EU

03/31/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper investigates the impact of regional institutional quality on economic growth and economic resilience. Using data collected by the Quality of Government Institute, we conduct a two-way fixed effect panel regression model for around 200 European regions during the period 2010 to 2021. Our findings establish a positive relationship between institutional quality and medium-term GDP growth. This effect is more pronounced in regions with low-income per capita, highlighting the importance of asymmetries across European regions.

Effects of monetary policy on labor income: the role of the employer

03/31/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper investigates the role of firms in the transmission of monetary policy to individual labor market outcomes, both the intensive and extensive margins. Using German matched employer-employee administrative data, we study the effects of monetary policy shocks on individual employment and labor income conditioning on the firm characteristics. First, we find that the employment of workers in young firms are especially sensitive to monetary policy shocks.

The impact of regional institutional quality on economic growth and resilience in the EU

03/31/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper investigates the impact of regional institutional quality on economic growth and economic resilience. Using data collected by the Quality of Government Institute, we conduct a two-way fixed effect panel regression model for around 200 European regions during the period 2010 to 2021. Our findings establish a positive relationship between institutional quality and medium-term GDP growth. This effect is more pronounced in regions with low-income per capita, highlighting the importance of asymmetries across European regions.

Effects of monetary policy on labor income: the role of the employer

03/31/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper investigates the role of firms in the transmission of monetary policy to individual labor market outcomes, both the intensive and extensive margins. Using German matched employer-employee administrative data, we study the effects of monetary policy shocks on individual employment and labor income conditioning on the firm characteristics. First, we find that the employment of workers in young firms are especially sensitive to monetary policy shocks.

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