Using corporate earnings calls to forecast euro area labour demand

03/20/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This box explores the use of corporate earnings calls as a novel, high-frequency source of data for nowcasting and forecasting labour demand in the euro area. Labour demand has started to show signs of cooling following its post-pandemic peak. By applying textual analysis to transcripts of earnings calls, we construct an indicator that correlates strongly with the euro area job vacancy rate. This metric enables us to produce timely forecasts ahead of official data releases. Utilising a mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regression approach, we use this indicator to forecast the job vacancy rate.

Iraqi Kurdistan faces a deepening economic crisis as unpaid wages pile up

03/11/2025 The Conversation UK

A man waves the Kurdistan flag in northern Iraq. Felix Friebe / ShutterstockPublic sector workers in Iraqi Kurdistan, a semi-autonomous region of northern Iraq, have endured irregular and delayed salary payments for more than a decade. Many of these people are owed staggering amounts of money – US$50,000 (£38,700) on average, and as much as US$120,000 for higher-level employees.

How to save workplace diversity schemes from the DEI backlash (without collecting more data)

03/11/2025 The Conversation UK

Mr.vicpix/ShutterstockIn a radio discussion on diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) in the workplace, a journalist asked me which year these schemes started in the UK. I felt thrown by the question. It assumed that the broad array of initiatives associated with DEI, including policies, training programmes, themed events and staff networks, had an inception date. I responded, as I often do: “It’s complicated.”

Europe may struggle to replace the military intelligence that Ukraine needs – but it has key strengths

03/11/2025 The Conversation UK

US intelligence has been an essential part of Ukraine’s defence for over a decade. Since the invasion of Crimea in 2014 the US has been supplying Kyiv with a continuous stream of electronic, satellite and human intelligence. This has been decisive in the war with Russia in providing warnings and in making Ukrainian attacks on the Russian military more effective.

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