FEDS Paper: Explaining Machine Learning by Bootstrapping Partial Marginal Effects and Shapley Values

09/20/2024 Federal Reserve Central banks

Thomas R. Cook, Zach D. Modig, Nathan M. PalmerMachine learning and artificial intelligence are often described as "black boxes." Traditional linear regression is interpreted through its marginal relationships as captured by regression coefficients. We show that the same marginal relationship can be described rigorously for any machine learning model by calculating the slope of the partial dependence functions, which we call the partial marginal effect (PME).

FEDS Paper: High-Growth Firms in the United States: Key Trends and New Data Opportunities

09/20/2024 Federal Reserve Central banks

J. Daniel Kim, Joonkyu Choi, Nathan Goldschlag, John HaltiwangerUsing administrative data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we introduce a new public-use database that tracks activities across firm growth distributions over time. With these new data, we uncover several key trends for high-growth firms—critical engines of innovation and economic growth.

FEDS Paper: What Does the Beveridge Curve Tell Us about the Likelihood of Soft Landings?

09/20/2024 Federal Reserve Central banks

Andrew Figura and Chris WallerAny assessment of the likelihood and characteristics of a soft landing in the labor market should take into account the current state of the labor market and the likely dynamics in the labor market going forward. Modern labor market models centered around the Beveridge curve are a useful tool in this assessment.

Elon Musk and Tesla Shape America’s Future. But Problems Run Deeper Than Tweets.

09/19/2024 Ineteconomics Analysis

The financialization of U.S. firms making critical products endangers both American global leadership and, in Tesla’s case, climate change progress.
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Tupperware has filed for bankruptcy – is multi-level marketing in trouble?

09/19/2024 The Conversation News & Comments

ArtZiq_TRG/ShutterstockTupperware is one of the few iconic brands with which nearly every Australian has come into contact at some stage.

Some, like me, will have grown up watching their mums host “Tupperware parties” for their friends on the weekend. Others used the unmistakably colourful containers to carry their lunches to work or produce microwave meals of marvel.

Consumer demand for central bank digital currency as a means of payment

09/18/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

What factors could drive transactional demand for central bank digital currency (CBDC)? We analyse payment survey data to arrive at a framework for understanding the role of adoption frictions and design strategies in shaping CBDC demand. The results of our analysis show that, while consumers may initially prefer to use more traditional payment methods, a design tailored to their specific needs could significantly increase CBDC uptake. Raising awareness and capitalising on network effects could also boost demand for CBDC.

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