European Central Bank

Capital requirements: a pillar or a burden for bank competitiveness?

10/09/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper examines the relationship between capital requirements, capital ratios and bank competitiveness – measured as profit efficiency. Using data envelopment analysis techniques, profit efficiency scores were estimated for a sample of listed significant institutions directly supervised by the European Central Bank. In calculating the scores, use was made of rich supervisory data on bank-specific characteristics and capital requirements, in addition to macroeconomic variables.

Details matter – how loan pricing affects monetary policy transmission in the euro area

10/09/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

We present novel empirical evidence on lending practices across all euro area countries, using AnaCredit data covering nearly seven million new loans issued to non-financial corporations in 2022-23. We document substantial variation in (a) the prevalence of fixed versus floating-rate loans, (b) rate fixation periods, and (c) reference rates. This variation results in lending rates being exposed to different segments of the risk-free rate yield curve which, in turn, influences their sensitivity to monetary policy changes.

Decoding climate-related risks in sovereign bond pricing: a global perspective

10/08/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Climate change poses a significant risk to financial stability by impacting sovereign credit risk. Quantifying the exact impact is difficult as climate risk encompasses different components– transition risk and physical risk – with some of these, as well as the policies to address them, playing out over a long time horizon. In this paper, we use a large panel of 52 developed and developing economies over two decades to empirically investigate the extent to which climate risks influence sovereign yields.

A comparative review of worldwide on-site banking supervision trends through the lens of IMF/World Bank FSAP

10/08/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

The IMF working paper, “Good Supervision: lessons from the field,” examines the effectiveness of On-site Inspections (OSIs) as a supervisory tool in advanced economies (AEs), drawing insights from 60 Basel Core Principles (BCPs) assessments conducted between 2012 and June 2023. Despite their critical role in ensuring financial stability, OSIs are identified as the second-largest weakness among supervisory techniques in AEs.

The slope of the euro area price Phillips curve: evidence from regional data

10/07/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper contributes to the literature on the price Phillips curve by exploiting subnational regional data from 11 euro area countries. Beyond controlling for aggregate fluctuations common across euro area regions, our approach accounts for country-specific dynamics, including national inflation expectations, thereby addressing key limitations in previous studies. Our results suggest that the Phillips curve in the euro area is relatively flat, but statistically significant.

A study on the interaction of capital, liquidity and bank stability

10/07/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the effects of capital and liquidity on bank stability as well as the existence of a potential complementary or substitute relationship between both dimensions to explain bank stability. We use a sample of 16,061 banks from 27 countries during the period 2013-2023. Our results show that both capital and liquidity increase bank stability. However, the joint interactive effect presents a negative coefficient indicating the existence of a potential substitution effect between both variables.

A study on the interaction of capital, liquidity and bank stability

10/07/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

How do rising temperatures affect inflation expectations?

10/06/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Global temperatures are rising at an alarming pace and public awareness of climate change is increasing, yet little is known about how these developments affect consumer expectations. We address this gap by conducting a series of experiments within a large-scale, population-representative survey of euro area consumers. We randomly assign consumers to hypothetical global temperature change scenarios, after which we elicit their expectations for inflation and key macroeconomic indicators under these conditions.

From Brussels to Bangkok: how investment funds transmit financial spillovers

10/06/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

We explore whether investment funds transmit spillovers from local shocks to financial markets in other economies. As a laboratory we consider shocks to financialmarket beliefs about the probability of a rare, euro-related disaster and their spillovers to Asian sovereign debt markets. Given their geographic distance from and relatively limited macroeconomic exposure to the euro area, these markets are an ideal testing ground a priori stacking the deck against finding evidence for investment funds transmitting spillovers from euro disaster risk shocks.

Macroprudential policy, monetary policy and non-bank financial intermediation

10/02/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper examines the interplay between macroprudential policy, monetary policy and the non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector, drawing on recent research and zooming in particularly on evidence from the euro area2. It documents the growth in the NBFI sector over the past two decades and its particular role in financing the real economy, assesses systemic risks that can emanate from the sector, considers how it interacts with monetary policy, and discusses the implications for macroprudential regulation.

European Central Bank

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