European Central Bank

Demographics, labor market power and the spatial equilibrium

02/12/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper studies how demographics affect aggregate labor market power, the urban wage premium and the spatial concentration of population. I develop a quantitative spatial model in which labor market competitiveness depends on the demographic composition of the local workforce. Using highly disaggregated administrative data from Germany, I find that firms have more labor market power over older workers: The labor supply elasticity decreases from more than 2 to 1 from age 20 to 64.

Gas price shocks and euro area inflation

02/12/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper develops a Bayesian VAR model to identify three structural shocks driving the European gas market: demand, supply and inventory shocks. We document how gas price fluctuations have a heterogeneous pass-through to euro area prices depending on the underlying shock driving them. The pass-through is stronger and more persistent when gas prices are driven by aggregate demand or supply pressures, while inventory shocks have a weaker impact.

Households' response to the wealth effects of inflation

02/08/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

We study the redistributive effects of surprise inflation combining administrative bank data with an information provision experiment during an episode of historic inflation. On average, households are well-informed about prevailing inflation and are concerned about its impact on their wealth; yet, while many households know about inflation eroding nominal assets, most are unaware of nominal-debt erosion. Once they receive information on the debt-erosion channel, households view nominal debt more positively and increase estimates of their own real net wealth.

The macroeconomic effects of global supply chain reorientation

02/08/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

Policymakers around the world are encouraging the local production of key inputs to reduce risks from excessive dependencies on foreign suppliers. We analyse the macroeconomic effects of supply chain reorientation through localisation policies, using a global dynamic general equilibrium model. We proxy non-tariff measures, such as the stricter enforcement of regulatory standards, which reduce import quantity but do not directly alter costs and prices.

What drives banks’ credit standards? An analysis based on a large bank-firm panel

02/05/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

In this paper we build a unique dataset to study how banks decide which firms to lend to and how this decision depends on their own situation and the characteristics of their borrowers. We find that weaker capitalised banks adjust their credit standards more than healthier banks, especially for firms with a higher default risk. We also show how credit standards change in reaction to two specific macroeconomic developments, namely an increase in bank funding costs and a sudden deterioration in banks’ corporate loan portfolios.

The role of comovement and time-varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices

02/01/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

Commodity prices co-move, but the strength of this co-movement changes over time due to structural factors, like changing energy intensity in production and consumption as well as changing composition of underlying shocks. This paper explores whether econometric models that exploit this co-movement and account for parameter instability provide more accurate point and density forecasts of ten major commodity indices viz-a-viz constant coefficient models.

Satellites turn “concrete”: tracking cement with satellite data and neural networks

01/31/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper exploits daily infrared images taken from satellites to track economic activity in advanced and emerging countries. We first develop a framework to read, clean, and exploit satellite images. Our algorithm uses the laws of physics (Planck’s law) and machine learning to detect the heat produced by cement plants in activity. This allows us to monitor in real-time whether a cement plant is working. Using this information on around 500 plants, we construct a satellite-based index tracking activity.

Physical and transition risk premiums in euro area corporate bond markets

01/31/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

The European Union plays a prominent role in climate regulations initiatives, this commitment likely implies that climate risk premiums look different in Europe compared to the rest of the world. This paper examines the pricing implications of climate risks in euro area corporate bond markets, focusing on physical and transition risk. Using climate news as a gauge for systematic climate risk, we find a significant pricing effect of physical risk in long-term bonds, with investors demanding higher returns on bonds exposed to physical risk shocks.

Inflation heterogeneity across households

01/30/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper studies the nature, evolution, and sources of inflation heterogeneity across households in France and Germany. Inflation differences are large and persistent. The two main sources of inflation heterogeneity are spatial differences in the prices paid for the same product and differences in the household-specific variety choice within a category. Income heterogeneity by itself is not a relevant determinant of inflation heterogeneity, but due to its correlation with household behaviour, a significant and timevarying inflation difference between income groups emerges.

The impact of macroeconomic and monetary policy shocks on credit risk in the euro area corporate sector

01/30/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

We analyse the impact of macroeconomic and monetary policy shocks on corporate credit risk as measured by firms’ probabilities of default (PDs) for the four largest euro area countries. We estimate the impact of shocks on one-year PDs using local projections (LP). For the period 2014-19, we find that aggregate shocks significantly affect the dynamics of credit risk. An adverse supply shock leads to a deterioration of firms’ riskiness 10 per cent above the average PD. Contractionary monetary policy shocks exert similar, but delayed effects.

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