European Central Bank

The Great Moderation at 40: learning from the cross section

09/29/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This study examines the drivers of inflation levels, inflation variability, and growth variability collectively representing long-term central bank performance across 37 advanced economies in the Great Moderation era. A key finding is that central bank performance is consistently linked to the overall quality of institutions, while central bank-specific factors such as independence, exchange rate regimes, or inflation targeting show no significant impact. The analysis is extended to the 2022 inflation resurgence, using pre-2022 country characteristics.

Business cycles with pricing cascades

09/29/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Business cycles with pronounced inflation can have sectoral origins and often feature a growing share of price-adjusting firms. Rationalizing such phenomena requires enhancing our modeling toolkit. We do that by building a non-linear equilibrium multi-sector framework featuring a general input-output network and optimal decisions on the timing and size of price adjustments. The interaction of our ingredients creates equilibrium cascades: large movements in aggregates trigger price adjustment decisions on the extensive margin.

Heterogeneity in macroeconomics

09/25/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

How large are the distributional effects of monetary policy in the euro area? Does heterogeneity matter for monetary policy? We answer these questions based on the results of research projects conducted at the ECB under the aegis of a dedicated research task force. A monetary policy easing causes a temporary reduction in consumption inequality; this is the case for both conventional and unconventional monetary policy.

Heterogeneity in macroeconomics

09/25/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

How large are the distributional effects of monetary policy in the euro area? Does heterogeneity matter for monetary policy? We answer these questions based on the results of research projects conducted at the ECB under the aegis of a dedicated research task force. A monetary policy easing causes a temporary reduction in consumption inequality; this is the case for both conventional and unconventional monetary policy.

What can newspaper articles reveal about the euro area economy?

09/25/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This study introduces a novel approach to dictionary-based sentiment analysis that extracts valuable insights from economic newspaper articles in the euro area without requiring article translation. We develop sentiment indices that accurately measure economic, labour, and inflation perceptions in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain using native-language texts. The aggregation of these country-specific sentiments provides a reliable indicator for the euro area as a whole, demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach in several nowcasting and forecasting experiments.

What can newspaper articles reveal about the euro area economy?

09/25/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This study introduces a novel approach to dictionary-based sentiment analysis that extracts valuable insights from economic newspaper articles in the euro area without requiring article translation. We develop sentiment indices that accurately measure economic, labour, and inflation perceptions in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain using native-language texts. The aggregation of these country-specific sentiments provides a reliable indicator for the euro area as a whole, demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach in several nowcasting and forecasting experiments.

Macroeconomic impacts of higher defence spending: a model-based assessment

09/25/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This article uses a suite of macroeconomic models to assess the economic impacts of an increase in euro area defence spending. Multipliers of government purchases average just below 1, and there is notable model uncertainty. Pressures on HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) inflation increase only gradually over time. An analysis of the transmission channels suggests that private sector expectations of higher future interest rates and taxes may substantially reduce fiscal multipliers.

Manufacturing versus services: how frontloading and uncertainty shaped recent developments

09/25/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Manufacturing activity in the euro area rebounded in early 2025, while services activity slowed, marking a reversal of the trends observed in the previous two years. This box analyses the role of frontloading effects and trade policy uncertainty in driving recent production dynamics. It argues that manufacturing benefited temporarily from frontloading ahead of US tariff measures, while services were more directly affected by rising trade policy uncertainty. In particular, hard data reveal that manufacturing subsectors with higher exposure to the United States (e.g.

Rational inattention and information provision experiments

09/25/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

In surveys with information provision experiments, researchers can observe how people change beliefs, and sometimes also actions, after having been confronted with information. This article interprets information provision experiments from the perspective of the theory of rational inattention, discussing what survey findings tell us about economic behaviour outside the survey and deriving implications for central bank communication.

Pages

Subscribe to European Central Bank