European Central Bank

Firm level heterogeneity and the impact of monetary policy on labour demand

05/28/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

Monetary policy asymmetrically affects the response of firms’ employment to an output shock and plays a role in cushioning employment adjustment over the business cycle. Combining annual firm-level data until 2020 with quarterly firm-level data until 2023 and high-frequency monetary policy surprises, we show that for a given change in output, monetary policy influences the extent to which firms hold on to labour, or “labour hoard”.

Firm level heterogeneity and the impact of monetary policy on labour demand

05/28/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

Monetary policy asymmetrically affects the response of firms’ employment to an output shock and plays a role in cushioning employment adjustment over the business cycle. Combining annual firm-level data until 2020 with quarterly firm-level data until 2023 and high-frequency monetary policy surprises, we show that for a given change in output, monetary policy influences the extent to which firms hold on to labour, or “labour hoard”.

Identifying relationship-level effects using covariance restrictions

05/27/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

We propose a new model in which relationship-specific effects or shocks are identified in a bipartite network under mild covariance restrictions, generalizing the influential Abowd et al. (1999) framework. For example, separate demand shocks are identified for each bank from which a firm borrows. We show how previous approaches break down when confronted with such heterogeneity, while our novel identification strategy yields a simple estimator that is consistent and asymptotically normal, under weaker network density assumptions than previous approaches.

Stockholding in Europe: Evidence from the Consumer Expectations Survey

05/27/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

We examine recent changes in stock market participation using newly available survey data from eleven euro area countries over the period 2020–2024. The evidence points to substantial turnover, with around 10% of non-stockholders entering the market each year, and more than 20% of stockholders exiting. New entrants tend to have lower education, income, financial literacy, and risk tolerance than established investors, indicating a shift in the composition of market participants. We also highlight the growing importance of cryptocurrency investments among retail investors.

Stockholding in Europe: Evidence from the Consumer Expectations Survey

05/27/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

We examine recent changes in stock market participation using newly available survey data from eleven euro area countries over the period 2020–2024. The evidence points to substantial turnover, with around 10% of non-stockholders entering the market each year, and more than 20% of stockholders exiting. New entrants tend to have lower education, income, financial literacy, and risk tolerance than established investors, indicating a shift in the composition of market participants. We also highlight the growing importance of cryptocurrency investments among retail investors.

Identifying relationship-level effects using covariance restrictions

05/27/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

We propose a new model in which relationship-specific effects or shocks are identified in a bipartite network under mild covariance restrictions, generalizing the influential Abowd et al. (1999) framework. For example, separate demand shocks are identified for each bank from which a firm borrows. We show how previous approaches break down when confronted with such heterogeneity, while our novel identification strategy yields a simple estimator that is consistent and asymptotically normal, under weaker network density assumptions than previous approaches.

House price booms and policy choices: insights from a meta-regression analysis

05/27/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

This special feature examines policy-assignment dilemmas facing macroprudential authorities when housing markets boom: which instruments work best, on which objectives, and in combination with which other tools? It does so by revitalising Mundell’s Principle of Effective Market Classification, the policy-space analogue of Ricardo’s comparative advantage principle, and by applying it to macroprudential policy.

Rising bankruptcies, resilient loan books: unpacking euro area corporate credit risk

05/27/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

Corporate bankruptcies in the euro area have been on the rise, but the aggregate asset quality of banks’ corporate lending has remained broadly stable. This special feature analyses this divergence and its implications for financial stability. It shows that rising bankruptcies may partly be explained by the normalisation of firm turnover since the COVID-19 pandemic, albeit with marked cross-country unevenness.

From dictionaries to AI: a new era in sentiment analysis for financial stability

05/27/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

Financial stability communication is challenging because its task is not to forecast financial crises, let alone predict their precise timing. Rather, it is to identify vulnerabilities and explain how the financial system is likely to fare should it be confronted with adverse shocks. Great care is needed in this endeavour, because the sentiment of financial stability communication can influence market perceptions and risk assessments, as well as broader economic and financial outcomes.

Sequential solution for DSGE models with deep neural networks

05/26/2026 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper develops a sequential deep learning algorithm for solving dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. The algorithm trains a deep neural network to approximate the model’s policy functions across four progressive phases: steady-state anchoring, exploration around the steady state, simulation on the ergodic set, and Monte Carlo integration of stochastic expectations.

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