European Central Bank

We employ 68 quarters of data – including from non-public supervisory sources – to study how 17 US and 17 euro-area banks balance the risk of breaching regulatory requirements against the cost of maintaining and speedily restoring “management” buffers. We find that steady-state management buffer targets systematically declined and regulatory risk tolerance (RRT) rose following the Great Financial Crisis, especially at banks experiencing a stronger increase in capital requirements.

Using a novel macro-finance model we infer jointly the equilibrium real interest rate r*, trend inflation, interest rate expectations, and bond risk premia for the United States. In the model r* plays a dual macro-finance role: as the benchmark real interest rate that closes the output gap and as the time-varying long-run real interest rate that determines the level of the yield curve. Our estimated r* declines over the last decade, with estimation uncertainty being relatively contained. We show that both macro and financial information is important to infer r*.

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the models and tools used for macroeconomic projections within the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). These include semi-structural models, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, time series models and specialised satellite models tailored to particular questions or country-specific aspects. Each type of model has its own strengths and weaknesses and can help answer different questions. The models should therefore be seen as complementary rather than mutually exclusive.

Euro area insurers manage several trillion euro in assets and take a long-term investment perspective. They hold more alternative and less liquid assets than in the past, partly resulting from the long period of low interest rates until 2022. As a result, their balance sheets have become less liquid and more sensitive to market conditions overall. Meanwhile their holdings of sovereign bonds show significant home bias, which may have even increased with quantitative easing policies.