Large-scale debt forbearance is a key policy tool during crises, yet targeting is challenging due to information asymmetries. Using transaction-level data from a Portuguese bank during COVID-19, we find that financially fragile households are more likely to enter forbearance, irrespective of income shocks. Mortgage payment suspension increases consumption and savings, but effects differ across households. Low liquid wealth and income are associated with a higher marginal propensity to consume.

NicoElNino/ShutterstockWhen it comes to turning research into real-world success, New Zealand has a problem.

Despite the country’s NZ$3.7 billion research and development spending in 2023 – a 17% jump from the previous year — too many New Zealand businesses fail to commercialise innovation.

The gold price has surged to a new all-time high above US$2,900 (A$4,544) an ounce this month.

It has risen by 12% since the start of the year and clearly outperformed US and Australian stock markets. The US stock index S&P500 is up 4% and the ASX 200 has gained just 2% in that time.

That follows an extraordinary run in 2024, when the precious metal surged 27%, the biggest rise in 14 years.

We study how disruptions to the supply of foreign critical inputs (FCIs) might affect value added at different levels of aggregation. FCIs are inputs primarily sourced from extra-EU countries with highly concentrated supply, or consisting in advanced technology products, or which are key to the green transition. Using firm-level customs and balance sheet data for Belgium, Spain, France, Italy and Slovenia, our framework allows us to assess how much – and how differently – geoeconomic fragmentation might affect European economies.