If AI takes most of our jobs, money as we know it will be over. What then?

It’s the defining technology of an era. But just how artificial intelligence (AI) will end up shaping our future remains a controversial question.

For techno-optimists, who see the technology improving our lives, it heralds a future of material abundance.

That outcome is far from guaranteed. But even if AI’s technical promise is realised – and with it, once intractable problems are solved – how will that abundance be used?

FEDS Paper: Options on Interbank Rates and Implied Disaster Risk(Revised)

Hitesh Doshi, Hyung Joo Kim, and Sang Byung SeoThe identification of disaster risk has remained a significant challenge due to the rarity of macroeconomic disasters. We show that the interbank market can help characterize the time variation in disaster risk. We propose a risk-based model in which macroeconomic disasters are likely to coincide with interbank market failure. Using interbank rates and their options, we estimate our model via MLE and filter the short-run and long-run components of disaster risk.

Crowdfunded companies are ‘ghosting’ their investors – and getting away with it

Imagine you invest US$500 to help a startup get off the ground through investment crowdfunding. The pitch is slick, the platform feels trustworthy and the company quickly raises its target amount from hundreds of people just like you. Then – silence. No updates, no financials, not even a thank-you.

You’ve been ghosted – not by a friend, but by a company you helped fund.

FEDS Paper: Policy Rate Uncertainty and Money Market Funds (MMF) Portfolio Allocations

Samin Abdullah and Manjola TaseWe find that an increase in policy rate uncertainty is associated with an increase in MMF portfolio allocations towards assets with shorter-dated maturities. We also find that the direction of uncertainty matters: MMF portfolio maturity is more sensitive to uncertainty when it relates to changes in expectations for a larger increase or a smaller decrease in the policy rate than when it relates to changes in expectations for a smaller increase or a larger decrease in the policy rate.

FEDS Paper: Recession Shapes of Regional Evolution: Factors of Hysteresis

Hie Joo Ahn and Yunjong EoThis paper empirically investigates sources of hysteresis, focusing on downward nominal wage rigidity and the gender gap in the labor market, using U.S. state-level payroll employment data. Employing a Bayesian Markov-switching model of business cycles, we identify U-shaped and L-shaped recessions, which correspond to quick recoveries and hysteresis, respectively.

IFDP Paper: Expanding the Labor Market Lens: Two New Eurozone Labor Indicators

Ece Fisgin, Joaquin Garcia-Cabo, Alex Haag, and Mitch LottWe present a principal component analysis of euro area labor market conditions by combining information from 22 labor market indicators into two comprehensive series. These two novel indicators provide a systematic view of the current state and forward-looking direction of the euro-area labor market, respectively, and demonstrate superior forecasting performance compared to existing indicators.

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