Monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve System in the US are widely recognised to have spillover effects on the rest of the world. In this paper, we focus on the asymmetric effects of US monetary policy shocks on macro-financial outcomes in emerging market economies (EMEs). We shed light on how domestic factors shape external monetary policy spillover effects using indicators on the macro-financial vulnerabilities and monetary policy stances of EMEs.

Joint statement from the Bank of England and Financial Conduct Authority.

Households' income heterogeneity is important to explain consumption dynamics in response to aggregate macro uncertainty: an increase in uncertainty generates a consumption drop that is stronger for income poorer households. At the same time, labor markets are strongly responsive to macro uncertainty as the unemployment rate and the job separation rate rise, while the job finding rate falls. A heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions in the labor market can account for these empirical findings.

We build a balance sheet-based model to capture run risk, i.e., a reduced potential to raise capital from liquidity buffers under stress, driven by depositor scrutiny and further fuelled by fire sales in response to withdrawals. The setup is inspired by the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) meltdown in March 2023 and our model may serve as a supervisory analysis tool to monitor build-up of balance sheet vulnerabilities. Specifically, we analyze which characteristics of the balance sheet are critical in order for banking system regulators to adequately assess run risk and resilience.