Enhancing GDP nowcasts with ChatGPT: a novel application of PMI news releases

This study involves tasking ChatGPT with classifying an “activity sentiment score” based on PMI news releases. It explores the predictive power of this score for euro area GDP nowcasting. We find that the PMI text scores enhance GDP nowcasts beyond what is embedded in ECB/Eurosystem Staff projections and Eurostat’s first GDP estimate. The ChatGPT-derived activity score retains its significance in regressions that also include the composite output PMI diffusion index.

FEDS Paper: Shovel Ready Projects and Commercial Construction Activity's Long and Variable Lags(Revised)

David Glancy, Robert J. Kurtzman, and Lara LoewensteinWe use microdata on the phases of commercial construction projects to document three facts regarding the sector's time-to-plan lags: (1) plan times are long and highly variable, (2) nearly half of projects in planning are abandoned, and (3) property price appreciation reduces the likelihood of abandonment.

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