Every few years since 1953, the Chinese government has unveiled a new master strategy for its economy: the all-important five-year plan.

For the most part, these blueprints have been geared at spurring growth and unity as the nation transformed from a rural, agrarian economy to an urbanized, developed powerhouse.

This paper investigates whether geopolitical risk causes a reduction in bank lending. In particular, it focuses on how the increase in geopolitical risk stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine affected euro area bank credit supply. Matching granular supervisory and credit register data and using a panel difference-in-difference approach, the results show that banks with larger exposure to the increase in geopolitical risk cut lending significantly more than those with smaller exposure.

Motivated by current events, this paper assesses the impact of tariff increases on bilateral greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) over the period 2016-2023. Leveraging a comprehensive dataset of announced greenfield investment projects, official FDI statistics, and bilateral product-level tariff data, we estimate a series of gravity equations to uncover key relationships. Our results show that, at an aggregate level, tariff increases are associated with a rise in greenfield FDI, consistent with the tariff-jumping hypothesis.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said some sectors were in a recession as he argued for more interest rate cuts.