The Great Moderation at 40: learning from the cross section

This study examines the drivers of inflation levels, inflation variability, and growth variability collectively representing long-term central bank performance across 37 advanced economies in the Great Moderation era. A key finding is that central bank performance is consistently linked to the overall quality of institutions, while central bank-specific factors such as independence, exchange rate regimes, or inflation targeting show no significant impact. The analysis is extended to the 2022 inflation resurgence, using pre-2022 country characteristics.

Business cycles with pricing cascades

Business cycles with pronounced inflation can have sectoral origins and often feature a growing share of price-adjusting firms. Rationalizing such phenomena requires enhancing our modeling toolkit. We do that by building a non-linear equilibrium multi-sector framework featuring a general input-output network and optimal decisions on the timing and size of price adjustments. The interaction of our ingredients creates equilibrium cascades: large movements in aggregates trigger price adjustment decisions on the extensive margin.

Business cycles with pricing cascades

Business cycles with pronounced inflation can have sectoral origins and often feature a growing share of price-adjusting firms. Rationalizing such phenomena requires enhancing our modeling toolkit. We do that by building a non-linear equilibrium multi-sector framework featuring a general input-output network and optimal decisions on the timing and size of price adjustments. The interaction of our ingredients creates equilibrium cascades: large movements in aggregates trigger price adjustment decisions on the extensive margin.

The Great Moderation at 40: learning from the cross section

This study examines the drivers of inflation levels, inflation variability, and growth variability collectively representing long-term central bank performance across 37 advanced economies in the Great Moderation era. A key finding is that central bank performance is consistently linked to the overall quality of institutions, while central bank-specific factors such as independence, exchange rate regimes, or inflation targeting show no significant impact. The analysis is extended to the 2022 inflation resurgence, using pre-2022 country characteristics.

FEDS Paper: Financial Stability Implications of Generative AI: Taming the Animal Spirits

Anne Lundgaard Hansen and Seung Jung LeeThis paper investigates the impact of the adoption of generative AI on financial stability. We conduct laboratory-style experiments using large language models to replicate classic studies on herd behavior in investment decisions. Our results show that AI agents make more rational decisions than humans, relying predominantly on private information over market trends.

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