Why empty supermarket shelves make you uneasy – even if you don’t want the missing items

Kauka Jarvi/ShutterstockHave you ever spotted an empty supermarket shelf and felt a sudden pang of discomfort, even though you weren’t looking for that item? You’re not alone. Shocks such as COVID and cyberattacks on retailers have made empty shelves a common sight in many countries. These moments often come with media coverage of panicked shoppers and long queues.

How to conduct joint Bayesian inference in VAR models?

When economic analysis requires simultaneous inference across multiple variables and time horizons, this paper shows that conventional pointwise quantiles in Bayesian structural vector autoregressions significantly understate the uncertainty of impulse responses. The performance of recently proposed joint inference methods, which produce noticeably different error band estimates, is evaluated, and calibration routines are suggested to ensure that they achieve the intended nominal probability coverage.

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