This paper argues that (i) we have reached “peak GenAI” in terms of current Large Language Models (LLMs); scaling (building more data centers and using more chips) will not take us further to the goal of “Artificial General Intelligence” (AGI); returns are diminishing rapidly; (ii) the AI-LLM industry and the larger U.S. economy are experiencing a speculative bubble, which is about to burst.
When Shohei Ohtani stepped onto the field at the Tokyo Dome in March 2025, he wasn’t just playing a game – he was carrying forward more than 100 years of baseball ties between the U.S. and Japan.
When Shohei Ohtani stepped onto the field at the Tokyo Dome in March 2025, he wasn’t just playing a game – he was carrying forward more than 100 years of baseball ties between the U.S. and Japan.
Nearly 1 in 7 Americans had trouble consistently getting enough to eat in 2023. Patrick Strattner/fStop via Getty ImagesThe Trump administration announced on Sept. 20, 2025, that it plans to stop releasing food insecurity data.
Andre Place/ShutterstockThe UK government has launched NHS league tables for every trust in England, promising transparency and an incentive for improvement. The idea is simple: rank providers of health care and reward the best.
This paper investigates how unrealized losses on banks’ amortized cost securities affect monetary policy transmission to bank lending in the euro area. Leveraging the sharp increase in interest rates between 2022 and 2023 and using granular supervisory data on security holdings and loan-level credit register data, we show that a one percentage point increase in the share of unrealized losses on amortized cost securities amplifies the contractionary effect of monetary tightening on lending supply by approximately one percentage point.
This paper examines the interplay between macroprudential policy, monetary policy and the non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector, drawing on recent research and zooming in particularly on evidence from the euro area2. It documents the growth in the NBFI sector over the past two decades and its particular role in financing the real economy, assesses systemic risks that can emanate from the sector, considers how it interacts with monetary policy, and discusses the implications for macroprudential regulation.
This paper investigates how unrealized losses on banks’ amortized cost securities affect monetary policy transmission to bank lending in the euro area. Leveraging the sharp increase in interest rates between 2022 and 2023 and using granular supervisory data on security holdings and loan-level credit register data, we show that a one percentage point increase in the share of unrealized losses on amortized cost securities amplifies the contractionary effect of monetary tightening on lending supply by approximately one percentage point.
This paper examines the interplay between macroprudential policy, monetary policy and the non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector, drawing on recent research and zooming in particularly on evidence from the euro area2. It documents the growth in the NBFI sector over the past two decades and its particular role in financing the real economy, assesses systemic risks that can emanate from the sector, considers how it interacts with monetary policy, and discusses the implications for macroprudential regulation.
Auscape/GettyThough they still haven’t been officially confirmed, reports China’s state-owned buyer told steelmakers to stop purchasing iron ore from Australian mining giant BHP have rattled both markets and Canberra.
