Ina Hajdini, Adam Shapiro, A. Lee Smith, and Daniel VillarThis paper reviews the drivers of the post-pandemic U.S. inflation surge and subsequent decline, including the behavior and role of inflation expectations. The sharp rise in inflation reflected severe imbalances between supply and demand stemming from the shocks of the pandemic and the policy response.
Ekaterina Peneva, Jeremy Rudd, and Daniel VillarThis paper examines the Board staff’s inflation forecast misses over the years following the COVID-19 outbreak, focusing on a timeline of what staff members knew when and lessons learned along the way.
Brent Bundick, Isabel Cairó, and Nicolas Petrosky-NadeauThis paper reviews recent academic studies to assess the implications of adopting a shortfalls, rather than a deviations, approach to pursuing maximum employment. Model-based simulations from these studies suggest three main findings. First, shortfalls rules generate inflationary pressure relative to deviations rules, which offsets downward pressure on inflation stemming from the presence of the effective lower bound.
François Gourio, Benjamin K. Johannsen, and David López-SalidoIn this paper, we describe the Federal Reserve’s 2019–20 review of its monetary policy framework. First, we discuss the historical background of and motivation for the review.
Grey Gordon, Julio Ortiz, and Benjamin SilkWe examine the experience of conducting reviews of monetary policy frameworks in the major advanced foreign economies since the Federal Open Market Committee's 2019–20 review. We find that periodic reviews are becoming the norm and have often been motivated by similar developments and challenges as those facing the Federal Reserve.
Christopher Foote, Shigeru Fujita, Amanda Michaud, and Joshua MontesWe suggest a core set of indicators for evaluating the position of the labor market relative to maximum employment. The unemployment rate remains the key indicator of the cyclical position of the labor market, as it is time-tested, is highly correlated with other indicators, and has practical measurement advantages. But other indicators can provide complementary evidence to get a fuller picture of the labor market.
The tariffs would hamper a clean energy industry that the president has often railed against.
In its quest to lower electricity prices for New Zealand households, the Electricity Authority may inadvertently make the situation worse.
This week, the authority announced plans to require New Zealand’s “gentailers” – firms that both generate electricity and retail it to consumers – to offer the same supply terms to independent retailers as they do to their own retail arms.
Under the newly fleshed-out details, Washington will maintain high tariffs on vehicles imported from the bloc until the E.U. takes steps to lower its levies on many American products.
The agenda-setting centrepiece of every Edinburgh TV Festival is the MacTaggart lecture, celebrating its 50th anniversary in 2025. This year’s lecture was delivered by former BBC news director James Harding, and billed as a speech that would examine challenges to truth and trust in the media.
