Bad wealth made good: how to tackle Britain’s twin faultlines of low growth and rising inequality

In the run-up to the 2024 election, future prime minister Keir Starmer labelled wealth creation Labour’s number one mission. “It’s the only way our country can go forward,” he declared. “We should nourish and encourage that – not just individuals but businesses.”

Starmer was right, in theory. But wealth creation is a slippery concept. Essential for economic and social progress, it can also work against both. It’s therefore vital to distinguish between “good” and “bad” wealth.

Shifts in OPEC+ behaviour and downside risks to oil prices

Oil prices have declined in recent months owing to a persistent oversupply in the market. A key driver has been a shift in the stance of OPEC+. The group has been increasing oil supply at a rapid pace despite already low prices, marking a clear departure from its historical role as a market stabiliser. A similar shift in behaviour occurred in 2014, when oil prices declined sharply and remained persistently low. This box evaluates the risk of a similar scenario unfolding today.

A machine learning approach to real time identification of turning points in monetary aggregates M1 and M3

Monetary aggregates provide valuable information about the monetary policy transmission and the business cycle. This paper applies machine learning methods, namely Learning Vector Quantisation (LVQ) and its distinction-sensitive extension (DSLVQ), to identify turning points in euro area M1 and M3. We benchmark performance against the Bry–Boschan algorithm and standard classifiers. Our results show that LVQ detects M1 turning points with only a three-month delay, halving the six-month confirmation lag of Bry–Boschan dating.

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