The Trump presidency could hammer global growth – here’s what the UK could do

helloRuby/ShutterstockDonald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election has brought big questions about what it means for Nato, Ukraine, the Middle East and, of course, global trade. Faced with the threat of protectionism, and outside the EU, the UK will have to make some tough choices.

Trump was chaotic and ego-driven when he was last in the White House. And despite becoming a convicted felon since leaving office, there is little indication that he has mellowed.

FEDS Paper: Unemployment Insurance and Macro-Financial (In)Stability

Yavuz Arslan, Ahmet Degerli, Bulent Guler, Gazi Kabas, and Burhan KuruscuWe identify and study two mechanisms that can overturn the stabilizing effects of unemployment insurance (UI) policies. First, households in economies with more generous UI reduce their precautionary savings and increase their mortgage debt. Second, the share of mortgages, especially those with higher loan-to-income ratios, increases on bank balance sheets.

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