FEDS Paper: Tale About Inflation Tails

Olesya V. Grishchenko and Laura WilcoxWe study probabilities of extreme inflation events in the United States and the euro area. Using a state-space model that incorporates information from a large set of professional forecasters, we generate the term structure of inflation forecasts as well as probabilities of future inflation for any range of inflation outcomes in closed form at any horizon.

Investor heterogeneity and large-scale asset purchases

Large-Scale Asset Purchases can impact the price of securities directly, when securities are targeted by the central bank, or indirectly through portfolio re-balancing of private investors. We quantify both the direct and the portfolio re-balancing impact, emphasizing the role of investor heterogeneity. We use proprietary security-level data on asset holdings of different investors. We measure the direct impact on security level, finding that it is smaller for securities predominantly held by more price-elastic investors, funds and banks.

Investor heterogeneity and large-scale asset purchases

Large-Scale Asset Purchases can impact the price of securities directly, when securities are targeted by the central bank, or indirectly through portfolio re-balancing of private investors. We quantify both the direct and the portfolio re-balancing impact, emphasizing the role of investor heterogeneity. We use proprietary security-level data on asset holdings of different investors. We measure the direct impact on security level, finding that it is smaller for securities predominantly held by more price-elastic investors, funds and banks.

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