FEDS Paper: Nonparametric Time Varying IV-SVARs: Estimation and Inference

Robin Braun, George Kapetanios, Massimiliano MarcellinoThis paper studies the estimation and inference of time-varying impulse response functions in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with external instruments. Building on kernel estimators that allow for nonparametric time variation, we derive the asymptotic distributions of the relevant quantities. Our estimators are simple and computationally trivial and allow for potentially weak instruments.

FEDS Paper: Predicting College Closures and Financial Distress

Robert Kelchen, Dubravka Ritter, and Douglas WebberIn this paper, we assemble the most comprehensive dataset to date on the characteristics of colleges and universities, including dates of operation, institutional setting, student body, staff, and finance data from 2002 to 2023. We provide an extensive description of what is known and unknown about closed colleges compared with institutions that did not close.

FEDS Paper: Missing Data Substitution for Enhanced Robust Filtering and Forecasting in Linear State-Space Models

Dobrislav Dobrev and Paweł J. SzerszeńReplacing faulty measurements with missing values can suppress outlier-induced distortions in state-space inference. We therefore put forward two complementary methods for enhanced outlier-robust filtering and forecasting: supervised missing data substitution (MD) upon exceeding a Huber threshold, and unsupervised missing data substitution via exogenous randomization (RMDX).

The multi-billion dollar startup sector is bouncing back – 8 big trends will shape 2025

Startups have always been at the forefront of innovation. But factors such as artificial intelligence (AI), sustainability and decentralisation are set to reshape industries in 2025.

Businesses are defined as startups when they are in the initial stages of development. They are characterised by the potential for rapid growth and external funding. And they are also sensitive to economic shifts and investment uncertainty.

America’s Health Insurance Grinches: A Scathing Indictment of “Market” Economics

The country’s flawed insurance model, driven by greed, leads to inefficiency, inequality, and denied care - a colossal scam that has sparked fury across the nation.
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