Enhancing GDP nowcasts with ChatGPT: a novel application of PMI news releases

This study involves tasking ChatGPT with classifying an “activity sentiment score” based on PMI news releases. It explores the predictive power of this score for euro area GDP nowcasting. We find that the PMI text scores enhance GDP nowcasts beyond what is embedded in ECB/Eurosystem Staff projections and Eurostat’s first GDP estimate. The ChatGPT-derived activity score retains its significance in regressions that also include the composite output PMI diffusion index.

Why power skills – formerly known as ‘soft skills’ – are the key to business success

What does it take to lead through complexity, make tough decisions and still put people first? For me, the answer became clear during a defining moment early in my career – one that changed my path entirely.

Today I am a business-school educator, but I began my career in the corporate world. I faced a challenge so intense that it motivated me to go back to school and earn a Ph.D. so I could help others lead with greater purpose and humanity.

The Bank of England, Financial Conduct Authority, Prudential Regulation Authority, and Payment Systems Regulator revise Memorandum of Understanding in relation to payments in the UK

The Bank of England (the Bank), the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA), and the Payment Systems Regulator (PSR) (the Authorities) have a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) which sets out the high-level framework that we use to cooperate with one another in relation to payments in the UK.

Climate change, firms and aggregate productivity

Our paper uses a general equilibrium framework to examine the effects of temperature on firm-level demand, productivity and input allocative efficiency. Using data from Italian firms and detailed climate data, it uncovers a sizeable negative effect of extreme temperatures on firm-level productivity. Based on these estimates, the model generates aggregate productivity losses from local temperature fluctuations that are higher than previously thought, ranging from 0.60% to 6.82% depending on the scenario and the extent of adaptation.

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