The signaling effects of fiscal announcements

Announcing a large fiscal stimulus may signal the government’s pessimism about the severity of a recession to the private sector, impairing the stabilizing effects of the policy. Using a theoretical model, we show that these signaling effects occur when the stimulus exceeds expectations and are more noticeable during periods of high economic uncertainty. Analysis of a new dataset of daily stock prices and fiscal news in Japan supports these predictions.

The heterogeneous impact of labor market shifts on household mortgage-taking

This paper examines how structural change in labor markets affects household credit outcomes. Using a Shift-Share instrumental variable approach, we find that occupational shifts negatively influence mortgage holding for households facing fa-vorable job market conditions, such as stable employment and income growth. Our results, robust to alternative specifications, suggest that when both individual and economy-wide career prospects are favorable, the opportunity costs of settling down grow accordingly.

The causal effect of inflation on financial stability, evidence from history

In contrast to the conventional Fisherian view that inflation reduces real debt positions, we show that significant increases in inflation are strongly associated with financial crises. In the spirit of Jordà et al. (2020), countries with free and fixed ex-change rates can be compared to difference out the confounding reaction of monetary policy. Across a dataset of 18 advanced economies over 151 years, we show that the impact of inflation extends beyond its indirect effect via monetary policy.

Study Finds Male and Female Economists See the Economy Differently -- Even When Politically Aligned. It Matters for Everyone.

In a significant new study published by the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Canadian economist Mohsen Javdani reveals that gender shapes views on power, equality, and inclusion in ways politics alone can’t explain.
Men and women might check the same box on election day, but they see the economy through different lenses. Just ask professional economists.

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