Central banks

IFDP Paper: Estimating the Volume of Counterfeit U.S. Currency in Circulation

Ruth JudsonThe incidence of currency counterfeiting and the possible total stock of counterfeits in circulation are popular topics of speculation and discussion in the press and are of substantial practical interest to the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury and the United States Secret Service (USSS), who are jointly responsible for U.S. banknote design, including security features, and production.

Climate change policies and technologies: diffusion and interaction with institutions and governance

Climate change is a global-scale structural change, affecting economies across the world, alongside global fragmentation, digitalisation and demographics. This paper analyses the diffusion of climate policies and technologies and the role of institutions and governance in that process. It discusses theory, models and data available to date, and the empirical evidence for the 20 European Union and all 40 countries covered by the OECD’s Environmental Policy Stringency index.

Climate change policies and technologies: diffusion and interaction with institutions and governance

Climate change is a global-scale structural change, affecting economies across the world, alongside global fragmentation, digitalisation and demographics. This paper analyses the diffusion of climate policies and technologies and the role of institutions and governance in that process. It discusses theory, models and data available to date, and the empirical evidence for the 20 European Union and all 40 countries covered by the OECD’s Environmental Policy Stringency index.

Mitigating fragility in open-ended investment funds: the role of redemption restrictions

Using supervisory data of alternative investment funds investing in bonds, I exploit the COVID-19 crisis to examine the effectiveness of redemption restrictions from a financial stability perspective. First, I find that redemption restrictions reduced outflows during the March 2020 market turmoil but did not result in higher outflows in the periods following the crisis episode. Second, I find that funds with higher redemption restrictions engaged less in procyclical cash hoarding during the COVID-19 crisis period, even after controlling for the size of their outflows.

Institutional investors and house prices

Institutional investors, such as investment funds, are playing an increasingly important role in residential real estate markets. This raises the possibility that their actions might drive aggregate market outcomes and may change how and which macrofinancial shocks transmit to house prices. In a Bayesian vector autoregression setting, we show that a demand shock from institutional investors has a positive and persistent effect on aggregate euro area house price growth and mortgage lending volumes.

Mitigating fragility in open-ended investment funds: the role of redemption restrictions

Using supervisory data of alternative investment funds investing in bonds, I exploit the COVID-19 crisis to examine the effectiveness of redemption restrictions from a financial stability perspective. First, I find that redemption restrictions reduced outflows during the March 2020 market turmoil but did not result in higher outflows in the periods following the crisis episode. Second, I find that funds with higher redemption restrictions engaged less in procyclical cash hoarding during the COVID-19 crisis period, even after controlling for the size of their outflows.

From press conferences to speeches: the impact of the ECB’s monetary policy communication

Monetary policy communication is important for managing policy expectations and enhancing the effectiveness of central bank policy decisions. The prevalence of topics in the ECB’s communication has shifted over time with the focus of its work: from the creation and introduction of the euro to addressing financial crises with new policy instruments, and more recently, to tackling the effects of the 2021-22 inflation surges.

The role of demographics in recent developments in the unemployment rate

The euro area unemployment rate has been declining for the past two years. This box explores the role of labour supply factors in driving this decline. To this end, it examines in particular whether changes in the labour force composition of certain demographic groups have contributed to this trend. The results show that, even within the relatively short time frame considered, shifts in the labour force composition – and especially the rising proportions of older workers and workers with a tertiary education – have contributed to reducing the unemployment rate.

Pages

Subscribe to Central banks