Central banks

FEDS Paper: (Re-)Connecting Inflation and the Labor Market: A Tale of Two Curves(Revised)

05/28/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Hie Joo Ahn and Jeremy B. RuddWe propose an empirical framework in which shocks to worker reallocation, aggregate activity, and labor supply drive the joint dynamics of the labor market and inflation, and where reallocation shocks take two forms depending on whether they result from quits or from job losses. We find that these structural shocks, which affect the Beveridge curve, have different effects on inflation.

IFDP Paper: Corporate Debt Maturity and Business Cycle Fluctuations

05/27/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Francesco Ferrante, Andrea Prestipino, Immo SchottLong-term debt is the main source of firm-financing in the U.S. We show that accounting for debt maturity is crucial for understanding business cycle dynamics. We develop a macroeconomic model with defaultable long-term debt and equity adjustment costs.

Private safe asset supply and financial instability

05/27/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This article studies the supply of private safe assets by banks and its implications for financial stability. Banks originate loans and improve loan quality through hidden screening efforts. They can then create safe assets by issuing debt backed by the safe payoffs, from both loans they have originated and a diversified pool of loans from other banks. The interaction between banks’ screening efforts and diversification decisions determines the volume of safe assets they supply.

Statistical Notice 2025/03 - Bank of England Levy: request for contact details

05/22/2025 Bank of England Central banks

Statistical Notices update the definitions and guidance contained in the Banking Statistics Yellow Folder

Pricing or panicking? Commercial real estate markets and climate change

05/21/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper provides the first study of climate risk pricing in euro area commercial real estate markets. We pay particular attention to changes in risk pricing over time, as a sudden market shift may significantly amplify the financial stability and macroeconomic implications of these risks. We find evidence of investors applying a penalty to buildings exposed to physical risk and that this penalty has increased significantly over the 2007-2023 period we study, particularly for properties exposed to risks associated with climate change.

Pricing or panicking? Commercial real estate markets and climate change

05/21/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Just another crypto boom? Mind the blind spots

05/21/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

The market capitalisation of crypto-assets has surged recently, fuelled by positive and broadening investor interest, including from traditional finance. Several key financial stability risks associated with crypto-assets have been identified in past editions of this publication and by the Financial Stability Board. They include, among others, interconnectedness with traditional finance

Navigating financial stability in an ageing world

05/21/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

The number of older people in the EU has increased markedly in recent decades and is projected to go on rising. This trend may pose challenges to financial stability given the adjustments needed in both the real economy and the financial sector to adapt to the demands of an ageing society.

Delays to changes to country groupings for International Banking Statistics

05/21/2025 Bank of England Central banks

This article provides an update regarding the timeline of implementing changes for country grouping conventions used in statistics covering the international business of monetary financial institutions operating in the UK and the consolidated claims of UK headquartered monetary financial institutions.

FEDS Paper: Scenario Synthesis and Macroeconomic Risk

05/20/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Tobias Adrian, Domenico Giannone, Matteo Luciani, and Mike WestWe introduce methodology to bridge scenario analysis and model-based risk forecasting, leveraging their respective strengths in policy settings. Our Bayesian framework addresses the fundamental challenge of reconciling judgmental narrative approaches with statistical forecasting.

Central banks

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