Central banks

FEDS Paper: Risk Perception and Loan Underwriting in Securitized Commercial Mortgages

Simon Firestone, Nathan Godin, Akos Horvath, Jacob SagiWe use model-implied volatility to proxy for property risk perceptions in the commercial real estate lending market. Although loan-to-value ratios (LTVs) unconditionally decreased following the Global Financial Crisis, LTVs conditioned on implied volatility and other theoretically motivated fundamental determinants of optimal leverage show no conclusive trend before or after the crisis.

FEDS Paper: Institution, Major, and Firm-Specific Premia: Evidence from Administrative Data

Ben Ost, Weixiang Pan, and Douglas WebberWe examine how a student’s field of degree and institution attended contribute to the labor market outcomes of young graduates. Administrative panel data that combines student transcripts with matched employer-employee records allow us to provide the first decomposition of premia into individual and firm-specific components.

FEDS Paper: On Commercial Construction Activity's Long and Variable Lags

David Glancy, Robert J. Kurtzman, and Lara LoewensteinWe use microdata on the phases of commercial construction projects to document three facts regarding time-to-plan lags: (1) plan times are long—about 1.5 years on average—and highly variable, (2) roughly one-third of projects are abandoned in planning, (3) property price appreciation reduces the likelihood of abandonment.

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