Central banks

The inflationary consequences of prioritising central bank profits

This paper examines the impact of rising interest rates on central bank profitability. Using a stylized income model, we demonstrate that changes in interest rates in combination with expansive balance sheet policies introduce a cyclical component into the central bank’s profit and loss statement. Ourfindings reveal, however, that while the interplay of such policies may dampen short-term profitability if interest rates rise, they do not undermine a central bank’s financial strength, because higher interest rates also raise the value of future seigniorage income.

The inflationary consequences of prioritising central bank profits

This paper examines the impact of rising interest rates on central bank profitability. Using a stylized income model, we demonstrate that changes in interest rates in combination with expansive balance sheet policies introduce a cyclical component into the central bank’s profit and loss statement. Ourfindings reveal, however, that while the interplay of such policies may dampen short-term profitability if interest rates rise, they do not undermine a central bank’s financial strength, because higher interest rates also raise the value of future seigniorage income.

FEDS Paper: Disagreement About the Term Structure of Inflation Expectations

Hie Joo Ahn and Leland E. FarmerWe develop a model of the individual term structure of inflation expectations across forecasting horizons. Using the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we decompose disagreement about inflation expectations into individuals’ long-term beliefs, private information, and public information. We find that in normal times, long-horizon disagreement is predominantly driven by individuals’ long-term beliefs, while short-horizon disagreement stems from private information.

FEDS Paper: Information Technology in Banking and Entrepreneurship

Toni Ahnert, Sebastian Doerr, Nicola Pierri, and Yannick TimmerWe study the importance of information technology (IT) in banking for entrepreneurship. Guided by a parsimonious model, we establish that job creation by young firms is stronger in US counties more exposed to banks with greater IT adoption. We present evidence consistent with banks' IT adoption spurring entrepreneurship through a collateral channel: entrepreneurship increases by more in IT-exposed counties when house prices rise.

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