Central banks

Why do we need to strengthen climate adaptations? Scenarios and financial lines of defence

12/16/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

Adaptation needs are vast, rising fast and difficult to determine in their entirety, especially with uncertain adverse scenarios due to climate inertia and implementation lags. Adaptation is hindered by a lack of a unified understanding of what it necessitates; the challenge in pointing out its costs, benefits, and residual risks; insufficiently prescriptive policy and legal frameworks; and the growing financing gap.

The “doom loop” and default incentives

12/16/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

The “doom loop” or “sovereign-bank nexus” has been a key factor in the European debt crisis, driven by feedback between fiscal sustainability risks and financial stability. This Research Bulletin revisits the doom loop, examining strategic default incentives and the unintended effects of policy interventions. While limiting banks’ exposure to sovereign debt can break the doom loop, it may increase default risks by weakening governments’ repayment incentives.

Nowcasting Made Easier: a toolbox for economists

12/13/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

We provide a versatile nowcasting toolbox that supports three model classes (dynamic factor models, large Bayesian VAR, bridge equations) and offers methods to manage data selection and adjust for Covid-19 observations. The toolbox aims at simplifying two key tasks: creating new nowcasting models and improving the policy analysis. For model creation, the toolbox automatizes testing input variables, assessing model accuracy, and checking robustness to the Covid period.

IFDP Paper: Corporate Debt Maturity Matters for Monetary Policy

12/06/2024 Federal Reserve Central banks

Joachim Jungherr, Matthias Meier, Timo Reinelt, and Immo SchottWe provide novel empirical evidence that firms’ investment is more responsive to monetary policy when a higher fraction of their debt matures. In a heterogeneous firm New Keynesian model with financial frictions and endogenous debt maturity, two channels explain this finding: (1.) Firms with more maturing debt have larger roll-over needs and are therefore more exposed to fluctuations in the real interest rate (roll-over risk).

FEDS Paper: Inflation Disagreement Weakens the Power of Monetary Policy

12/06/2024 Federal Reserve Central banks

Ding Dong, Zheng Liu, Pengfei Wang, and Min WeiWe present empirical evidence that household inflation disagreement weakens the power of forward guidance and conventional monetary policy shocks. The attenuation effect is stronger when inflation forecasts are positively skewed and it is not driven by endogenous responses of inflation disagreement to contemporaneous shocks. These empirical observations can be rationalized by a model featuring heterogeneous beliefs about the central banks' inflation target.

FEDS Paper: Duration of Capital Market Exclusion: An Empirical Investigation

12/06/2024 Federal Reserve Central banks

Daniel A. Dias, Christine Richmond, and Grant WestfahlThis paper investigates the duration of market exclusion following a sovereign default and its resolution. We employ multiple definitions of market access, differentiating between gross versus net borrowing and partial versus full access, to measure the time it takes for countries to regain entry into international capital markets following a sovereign default and resolution.

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