Central banks

FEDS Paper: Reviews of Foreign Central Banks’ Monetary Policy Frameworks: Approaches, Issues, and Outcomes

Grey Gordon, Julio Ortiz, and Benjamin SilkWe examine the experience of conducting reviews of monetary policy frameworks in the major advanced foreign economies since the Federal Open Market Committee's 2019–20 review. We find that periodic reviews are becoming the norm and have often been motivated by similar developments and challenges as those facing the Federal Reserve.

FEDS Paper: Options on Interbank Rates and Implied Disaster Risk(Revised)

Hitesh Doshi, Hyung Joo Kim, and Sang Byung SeoThe identification of disaster risk has remained a significant challenge due to the rarity of macroeconomic disasters. We show that the interbank market can help characterize the time variation in disaster risk. We propose a risk-based model in which macroeconomic disasters are likely to coincide with interbank market failure. Using interbank rates and their options, we estimate our model via MLE and filter the short-run and long-run components of disaster risk.

IFDP Paper: Expanding the Labor Market Lens: Two New Eurozone Labor Indicators

Ece Fisgin, Joaquin Garcia-Cabo, Alex Haag, and Mitch LottWe present a principal component analysis of euro area labor market conditions by combining information from 22 labor market indicators into two comprehensive series. These two novel indicators provide a systematic view of the current state and forward-looking direction of the euro-area labor market, respectively, and demonstrate superior forecasting performance compared to existing indicators.

From words to deeds – incorporating climate risks into sovereign credit ratings

We investigate the impact of climate risks on sovereign credit ratings worldwide. Our analysis shows that higher temperature anomalies and more frequent natural disasters – measures of physical risk – correlate with lower credit ratings. We find that long-term shifts in climate patterns (“chronic risk”) primarily affect advanced economies, while the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events (“acute risk”) matters more for emerging economies. However, the estimated impact of both types of risk on credit ratings is low and the economic effects are negligible.

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