The optimal inflation target: Views from 600 economists

A key question for any inflation-targeting framework is what the inflation target should be. This column reports findings from a survey of leading economists from around the world on the inflation target and related monetary policy issues. Overall, there was a strong preference for the status quo, with participants seeming to perceive high costs in terms of credibility from changing the current inflation target. However, participants concerned about the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate were more likely to favour raising the target.

The end of the crypto-diversification myth

Since the onset of the Covid-19 crisis in 2020, the correlation between cryptocurrency and equities went from low and negative to consistently high and positive. This column proposes a new mechanism to explain this new relationship. With investor-level holdings from a bank offering both trading accounts and cryptocurrency wallets, it shows that retail investors’ net trading volumes of stocks and cryptocurrencies are highly positively correlated. Theoretically, this micro-level pattern translates into a cross-asset class correlation.

The net foreign asset position of the US

The US net foreign asset position – measuring the difference between its foreign assets and liabilities – was negative, yet small, until 2007. This column shows that since then, it has deteriorated sharply to negative 65% of GDP, mostly as a result of changes in the market value of US-owned assets abroad and foreign-owned assets in the US. These valuation effects are explained by rising US equity values disproportionately benefitting foreign owners of US firms.

The global real interest rate

Global real rates are stuck at a low level, and until recently policy rates everywhere were effectively zero. Can we use historical data to explain why this happened, and to predict whether we will be back at the ZLB when inflation falls? Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Ricardo Reis talk to Tim Phillips.

The regional development trap in Europe

Many regions in Europe are stuck in a development trap and face significant structural challenges in retrieving past dynamism or improving prosperity for their residents. This column conceptualises what constitutes a development trap at a regional level in Europe and identifies which regions have been trapped or at risk of becoming trapped in recent years. Regional development traps can arise at many different levels of income. Springing these traps would improve overall European competitiveness and help quell the discontent and resentment of citizens living in these areas.

Gains from trade: International transport costs still matter

Although transport costs have decreased substantially over the past two centuries, they are still far from negligible. This column argues that in addition to standard ad-valorem transport costs, there is an important role for additive costs in trade models. The authors estimate that over the period 1974 to 2019, additive costs represented between 35% (in air transport) and 45% (in vessel) of total transport costs.

Central banks and climate policies

Central banks in developed countries have launched cautious investigations into whether, how, and to what extent they should intervene in climate policy. This column shows that central banks would face trade-offs if they were to start tackling climate change, as the instruments overlap with those already used in their monetary and macroprudential mandates. Using a using a principal–agent setting, the authors argue that central banks’ effectiveness in addressing climate change will depend on capture risk and  calibration risk.

Russia’s war worsens the outlook: The Commission’s Summer Interim Forecast

The shocks unleashed by Russia’s war on Ukraine are hitting the EU economy hard, setting it on a path of lower growth and higher inflation than expected in the previous European Commission forecast. Further upward pressures on energy prices, and even an outright cut in gas supply, represent concrete risks to the forecast. Against this backdrop, this column argues that EU Member States should implement the right policies to support vulnerable households while investing in measures to frontload the energy transition.

Pages

Subscribe to Front page feed