Ricardo's threads | Nothing contributes so much to the prosperity and happiness of a country as high profits

CPI Inflation, July 2021

08/18/2021 National Institute of Economic and Social Research UK

CPI inflation fell by a large amount (0.5%) and is now at 2.0%. All of this effect was due to the “base effect” of the spike in inflation last year (June-July 2020) dropping out. There was no new inflation in June-July 2021 as the general level of prices remained constant. The reduction in inflation was spread across most sectors, the only exception being Transport, which showed a large month on month increase, largely due to motor fuels and second- hand car prices. Clothing and footwear also showed a significant decrease due to the July sales.

Effective COVID-19 policy is not only about public health, but also about economics

08/13/2021 National Institute of Economic and Social Research UK

The COVID-19 crisis has upended the lives of many, causing almost 200M global infections to date, over 4M deaths and untold damage to the livelihoods of millions. Although the recent vaccine rollout in some parts of the world offers some room for optimism, the epidemic is still far from defeated and many in the developing world are still at significant risk of infection.

Inflation, the Fed and Economic Long Covid

08/04/2021 National Institute of Economic and Social Research UK

The Federal Reserve underpredicted 2021’s US inflation pick-up but believes the current inflation spike is temporary. If this assessment proves wrong, the result could be lasting higher than targeted inflation, an extended period of high unemployment, or both. To avoid this economic long Covid, the Fed should taper soon to give itself the flexibility to respond with higher rates if inflation fails to retreat as much as it expects.

Of Wars, Computors and National Statistics

07/14/2021 National Institute of Economic and Social Research UK

Although the origins of national income accounting date back centuries, these concepts were taken up by the British government as a vital part of the war effort when the Central Statistical Office was founded in January 1941 directly from Winston Churchill’s command. The crisis of war drove innovation in the field of economic statistics, creating the need for accurate and useful economic statistics.

CPI Inflation, June 2021

07/14/2021 National Institute of Economic and Social Research UK

CPI inflation rose by a large amount (0.5%) for the third month running and is now at 2.5%. The contributions to inflation were spread across most types of expenditure, with Transport being the largest. The current high levels of monthly inflation are unlikely to be sustained and are due to recovery of some prices in the first lockdown and short-run adjustment and supply-chain issues. Inflation will continue to increase until it peaks in early 2022 and then comes down again. The peak may be above 3% but is unlikely to exceed 4%.

Solving the School Exam Dilemma: how to mark the markers

07/02/2021 National Institute of Economic and Social Research UK

We have known since early this year that because of Covid-19 and lockdowns, public examinations would not go ahead this summer. So, the question is how can we design a mechanism to encourage accurate portrayal of pupil performance, when there may be an incentive to exaggerate?

CPI Inflation, May 2021

06/17/2021 National Institute of Economic and Social Research UK

CPI inflation rose by a large amount (0.6%) for the second month running and is now at 2.1%. The main drivers of the increase from April were Clothing and footwear and Recreation and Culture. Women’s clothing showed some very large increases. The current high levels of monthly inflation are unlikely to be sustained and are due to recovery of some prices from low levels in the first lockdown and short-run adjustment and supply-chain issues. Inflation will continue to increase until it peaks in early 2022 and then comes down again. The peak may be above 3% but is unlikely to exceed 4%.

The impact of Covid-19 on children’s language, socio-emotional and educational outcomes

06/17/2021 National Institute of Economic and Social Research UK

There is no doubt that Covid-19 has caused significant disruption to children’s lives and there is understandable concern about their educational progress. This has only been exacerbated by the recent outcry about the level of funding announced by the government to support their “catch-up” plans, which resulted in the resignation of Sir Kevan Collins. In addition, the current narrative around “catch-up” does not take account of children’s social and emotional needs as we move forward, focusing primarily on educational outcomes. Moreover, the Government “catch-up” plan is not clear about

Bank Chief Economist: Manager or Thought Leader?

06/04/2021 National Institute of Economic and Social Research UK

The Bank of England is searching for a new Chief Economist, and the formal deadline for applications was Wednesday 2 June. But what is the Bank’s Chief Economist expected to do? And what skills and qualifications does he or she need? After all, the Bank has lots of economists. What special responsibilities does our central bank need a Chief Economist to carry out?

The Lockdown Weighted inflation CPILW for April 2021

05/19/2021 National Institute of Economic and Social Research UK

CPILW rose significantly to 1.5% in April from 0.8% in March. The official CPIH measure of inflation also rose significantly to 1.6% from 1.0% the previous month. The gap between the official measure and the measure using lockdown weights has remained small but positive. This contrasts with the months prior to December 2020, when CPIH was less than CPILW, indicating that the official measure tended to understate inflation in that period.

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