Central banks

Fiscal integration as a Pareto improvement

Fiscal integration in a currency union is generally understood as a transfer from fiscally strong to fiscally weak countries. I show that this changes when common debt is paired with a non-defaultable common tax, even if national debt remains defaultable. The risky country gains from intertemporal trade: it receives a grant financed by a perpetual obligation it discounts more heavily than lenders do. The cost to the safe member is second-order and the tax removes it by insuring imperfectly correlated cycles rather than transferring resources in expectation.

Fiscal integration as a Pareto improvement

Fiscal integration in a currency union is generally understood as a transfer from fiscally strong to fiscally weak countries. I show that this changes when common debt is paired with a non-defaultable common tax, even if national debt remains defaultable. The risky country gains from intertemporal trade: it receives a grant financed by a perpetual obligation it discounts more heavily than lenders do. The cost to the safe member is second-order and the tax removes it by insuring imperfectly correlated cycles rather than transferring resources in expectation.

Private equity beyond the target: how buyouts reshape supply chains

The impact of private equity buyouts on target firms is well documented, yet empirical evidence on the impact of buyouts across the supply chain remains scarce. We address this gap by using unique production network data to examine how supply chains contribute to the ability of private equity investors to create and extract value. We show that, on average, suppliers of firms backed by private equity outperform their peers because of increased demand for inputs from customers backed by private equity – rather than alternative mechanisms such as knowledge spillovers.

Monitoring banks’ vulnerabilities using stressed depletion indices

We introduce two indicators to track the build-up of vulnerabilities in the euro area banking sector on a quarterly basis by leveraging the information collected in EU-wide solvency stress tests. First, we introduce an indicator of conditional capital depletion, the Stress Vulnerability Index (SVI), which quantifies potential losses under adverse scenarios when tail credit risk is highest. Second, we introduce an indicator of earnings vulnerability, the Profitability Vulnerability Index (PVI), which assesses the capacity of the banking sector to generate capital organically.

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