Central banks

Effects of monetary policy on labour income: the role of the employer

03/26/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This article investigates how firms transmit monetary policy shocks to individual labour market outcomes at both the intensive and extensive margins. Using matched employer-employee administrative data from Germany, we study the effects of monetary policy shocks on individual employment and of labour income conditioning on characteristics of workers and firms. First, we find that the employment of workers at young firms is especially sensitive to monetary policy shocks.

FEDS Paper: Do Households Substitute Intertemporally? 10 Structural Shocks That Suggest Not

03/25/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Edmund CrawleyI combine microdata on the intertemporal marginal propensity to consume with 10 structural macro shocks to identify the role of intertemporal substitution in consumption behavior. Although some of the structural shocks that I examine lead to large and persistent changes in real interest rates—which in many models would induce a large intertemporal substitution effect—I find no evidence that households shift the timing of their consumption in response to these interest rate changes.

FEDS Paper: A Model of Charles Ponzi

03/25/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Gadi Barlevy, Ines XavierWe develop a model of Ponzi schemes with asymmetric information to study Ponzi frauds. A long-lived agent offers to save on behalf of short-lived agents at a higher rate than they can earn themselves. The long-lived agent may genuinely have a superior savings technology, but may be an imposter trying to steal from short-lived agents. The model identifies when a Ponzi fraud can occur and what interventions can prevent it.

Creditworthy: do climate change risks matter for sovereign credit ratings?

03/25/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Do sovereign credit ratings take into account physical and transition climate risks? This paper empirically addresses this question using a panel dataset that includes a large sample of countries over two decades. The analysis reveals that higher temperature anomalies and more frequent natural disasters—key indicators of physical risk—are associated with lower credit ratings. In contrast, transition risk factors do not appear to be systematically integrated into credit ratings throughout the entire sample period.

Creditworthy: do climate change risks matter for sovereign credit ratings?

03/25/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

Do sovereign credit ratings take into account physical and transition climate risks? This paper empirically addresses this question using a panel dataset that includes a large sample of countries over two decades. The analysis reveals that higher temperature anomalies and more frequent natural disasters—key indicators of physical risk—are associated with lower credit ratings. In contrast, transition risk factors do not appear to be systematically integrated into credit ratings throughout the entire sample period.

The expert’s edge? Bank lending specialization and informational advantages for credit risk assessment

03/24/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

We examine whether loan portfolio sectoral specialization provides informational advantages to banks, enabling better credit risk assessment. Using euro area credit register data, we compare probabilities of default assigned by specialized and non-specialized banks to the same borrowing firm several quarters before the borrower defaults. We find that banks specialized in the borrower’s sector are better in predicting future defaults. This is mostly driven by specialized banks actively raising probabilities of default earlier, not by higher probabilities of default when loans are issued.

The expert’s edge? Bank lending specialization and informational advantages for credit risk assessment

03/24/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

We examine whether loan portfolio sectoral specialization provides informational advantages to banks, enabling better credit risk assessment. Using euro area credit register data, we compare probabilities of default assigned by specialized and non-specialized banks to the same borrowing firm several quarters before the borrower defaults. We find that banks specialized in the borrower’s sector are better in predicting future defaults. This is mostly driven by specialized banks actively raising probabilities of default earlier, not by higher probabilities of default when loans are issued.

Filling the gap: the geographical allocation of euro area portfolio investment liabilities and related income

03/24/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper presents the estimation method used to break down the euro area portfolio investment liabilities in the international investment position (i.i.p.) and their corresponding income debits in the balance of payments (b.o.p.), by main geographical counterpart. Identifying non-resident investors in euro area portfolio investment liabilities (i.e. equity and debt securities issued by euro area residents) is a complex task, as securities are regularly traded in secondary markets and held via custodians and other financial intermediaries.

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