Federal Reserve

FEDS Paper: Out of Sight, Out of Mind: Nearby Branch Closures and Small Business Growth

Ben Ranish, Andrea Stella, and Jeffery ZhangSince 2010, the total number of commercial bank branches in the United States has fallen by about 20%. Do branch closures meaningfully affect economic activity? We investigate the impact of branch closures on small businesses, whose credit access may be facilitated through local relationships with bankers.

FEDS Paper: Inframarginal Borrowers and the Mortgage Payment Channel of Monetary Policy

Daniel RingoDespite the widespread use of fixed-rate mortgages in the United States, I show that monetary policy is effectively passed through to aggregate outstanding mortgage debt service. Using credit bureau, lender, and servicer data on mortgage payments and originations and exogenous monetary policy shocks, I estimate a mortgage rate semi-elasticity of payments over 10.

FEDS Paper: Insurance, Weather, and Financial Stability

Charles M. Kahn, Ahyan Panjwani, and Joao A.C. SantosIn this paper, we introduce a model to study the interaction between insurance and banking. We build on the Federal Crop Insurance Act of 1980, which significantly expanded and restructured the decades-old federal crop insurance program and adverse weather shocks – over-exposure of crops to heat and acute weather events – to investigate some insights from our model.

FEDS Paper: Equilibrium Yield Curves with Imperfect Information(Revised)

Hiroatsu TanakaI study the dynamics of default-free bond yields and term premia using a novel equilibrium term structure model with a New-Keynesian core and imperfect information about productivity. Imperfect information can justify a shock to signals about productivity that does not lead to actual changes in productivity, which can be interpreted as a demand shock.

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