Kabir Dasgupta, Keisha SolomonThe Medicaid continuous enrollment provision, which ensured uninterrupted coverage for beneficiaries during the COVID-19 pandemic, was ended in March 2023. This unwinding process has led to large-scale Medicaid disenrollments, as states resumed their standard renewal process to evaluate enrolled individuals' eligibility status.
Michael Smolyansky and Gustavo SuarezWhen the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, do the prices of riskier assets fall relative to safer assets? Or, do investors interpret policy tightening as a signal that economic fundamentals are stronger than they previously believed, thus leading riskier assets to outperform? We present evidence that the latter of these two forces empirically dominates within the U.S. corporate bond market.
Margaret M. JacobsonEndogenously optimistic beliefs about future house prices can account for the increase, time-path, and volatility of house prices in the U.S. housing boom of the 2000s without shocks to housing preferences. In a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets and aggregate risk, heterogeneous agents endogenously form beliefs about future house prices in response to shocks to fundamentals.
Benjamin Knox and Annette Vissing-JorgensenWe propose a new method for decomposing realized stock market capital gains into contributions from changes to the real yield curve, equity premia, and expected dividends. The method centers on changes to observable inputs of the present value formula and requires no regressions or log-linearization.
Michele Modugno and Dino PalazzoThe equity market’s reaction to macroeconomic news is consistent with the propagation of news into the real economy. We embody all the macro news in an activity news index and a price news index that together explain 34% of the quarterly stock price returns variation.
Benjamin N. Dennis, Gurubala Kotta, and Caroline Conley NorrisThe correlation of the spatial distribution of banking exposures with changes in spatial patterns of economic activity (e.g., internal migration, changes in agglomeration patterns, climate change, etc.) may have financial stability implications. We therefore study the spatial distribution of large U.S. banks' commercial and industrial (C&I) lending portfolios.
Zach Modig, Hulusi Inanoglu, and David LynchUsing a novel data collection, we examine the impact of the Volcker Rule on trading revenue of the 21 largest U.S. trading firms during the 100 day stress period centered on the COVID-19 financial crisis.
Robin Braun, George Kapetanios, Massimiliano MarcellinoThis paper studies the estimation and inference of time-varying impulse response functions in structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with external instruments. Building on kernel estimators that allow for nonparametric time variation, we derive the asymptotic distributions of the relevant quantities. Our estimators are simple and computationally trivial and allow for potentially weak instruments.
Robert Kelchen, Dubravka Ritter, and Douglas WebberIn this paper, we assemble the most comprehensive dataset to date on the characteristics of colleges and universities, including dates of operation, institutional setting, student body, staff, and finance data from 2002 to 2023. We provide an extensive description of what is known and unknown about closed colleges compared with institutions that did not close.
Diego Bonelli, Berardino Palazzo, Ram S. YamarthyUsing inflation swap prices, we study how changes in expected inflation affect firm-level credit spreads and equity returns, and uncover evidence of a time-varying inflation sensitivity.
