Ufuk Akcigit, Harun Alp, Jeremy Pearce, and Marta PratoThis paper explores the symbiotic relationship between transformative entrepreneurs and inventors, which is crucial for economic growth. We utilize microdata from Denmark to demonstrate that while the relationship between IQ and general entrepreneurship tends to be negative, it is strongly positive among transformative entrepreneurs.
David Glancy, Robert J. Kurtzman, and Lara LoewensteinWe use microdata on the phases of commercial construction projects to document three facts regarding the sector's time-to-plan lags: (1) plan times are long and highly variable, (2) nearly half of projects in planning are abandoned, and (3) property price appreciation reduces the likelihood of abandonment.
R. Matthew Darst, Ehraz Refayet, and Alexandros VardoulakisWe examine how macroprudential capital requirements interact with competition between banks and non-banks to shape lending standards. Banks have private information and benefit from deposit insurance, while non-banks lack such advantages but are less regulated.
Leland D. Crane, Akhil Karra, and Paul E. SotoWe evaluate the ability of large language models (LLMs) to estimate historical macroeconomic variables and data release dates. We find that LLMs have precise knowledge of some recent statistics, but performance degrades as we go farther back in history.
Daniel Barth and Stacey SchreftThis article refines the concept of black swans, typically described as highly unlikely and catastrophic events, by clearly distinguishing between knowable and unknowable events. By emphasizing that black swans are “unknown unknowns,” the article highlights that the realization of new black swans cannot be prevented and motivates a need for policies that build the financial system's resilience to unforeseeable crises.
Gorkem Bostanci, Omer Koru, and Sergio VillalvazoWe argue that inflationary shocks affect allocative efficiency by changing the rate and the characteristics of workers’ job-to-job transitions. First, using monetary policy shocks and survey data on search effort, we empirically show that a one percentage point rise in inflation increases job-to-job transitions by up to 4.5%, and workers with higher inflation expectations are more likely to search and do so more effectively.
Olesya V. Grishchenko, Franck Moraux, and Olga PakulyakWe analyze evolution of inflation expectations in the euro area (EA) using a novel measure of inflation expectations implied by the French nominal and inflation-indexed bonds. Overall, we find that EA inflation expectations have been relatively well anchored in the 2004–2019 sample but have been somewhat sensitive to the incoming macroeconomic news and monetary policy shocks in the sample that includes the COVID-19 pandemic.
Douglas Webber, Isabella Agnes, Jessica Liu, and Erin TrolandThis paper presents an overview of how various labor market indicators differ across geography. While many indicators are often discussed in terms of national aggregates, such discussions obscure the large degree of variation that exists across localities.
Erin Troland, Isabella Agnes, Ellie Dries, Jessica Liu, Zofsha Merchant, Fatimah Shaalan, Michelle Tran, Anna Tranfaglia, and Douglas WebberThis paper examines the costs and benefits of using a straightforward county-level income definition in the classification and study of lower-income communities.
Eleni Gousgounis, Scott Mixon, Tugkan Tuzun, and Clara VegaWe study the behavior of liquidity providers and liquidity consumers in the 10-year U.S. Treasury futures market during the height of the COVID-19 shock in March 2020, a period of market turmoil when demand for liquidity was high. In March 2020, PTFs reduced their volume of liquidity providing trades as a share of total trading volume.
