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FEDS Paper: Does Financial Stress Affect Commodity Futures Traders' Positions?(Revised)

11/04/2025 Federal Reserve Central banks

Shengwu Du, Travis D. Nesmith, and Yang HeppeFinancial stress can impact trading behavior in the U.S. commodity futures markets. To clarify the impact, we study absolute changes and relative exposure dynamics in traders' positions during two recent crises: the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic. The nature of these two crises are very distinct, and we find that traders behaved quite differently.

Small Businesses Gear Up for Tariff Fight at Supreme Court

11/04/2025 New York Times USA

Companies that sell diamonds, plant sensors and wine all have one thing in common: They are weighing in against tariffs in a consequential case.

Declining union membership could be making working-class Americans less happy and more susceptible to drug overdoses

11/04/2025 The Conversation USA

Protesters gather at a union-organized rally outside the U.S. Capitol in February 2025. Allison Robbert/AFP via Getty ImagesWhen fewer people belong to unions and unions have less power, the impact goes beyond wages and job security. Those changes can hurt public health and make people more unhappy.

Tax rises and benefit cuts are on the horizon as Reeves prepares the UK for a bad-news budget

11/04/2025 The Conversation UK

The UK chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has made it clear that taxes will go up, and more cuts to welfare spending are on the horizon. The moves will be deeply unpopular and controversial – but in an extraordinary press conference ahead of the UK budget on November 26, Reeves made it clear that she believes both will be necessary.

Singles’ Day is a $150B holiday in China. Here’s why I think ‘11/11’ will catch on in the US

11/04/2025 The Conversation USA

On Nov. 11 each year, a curious holiday takes over China. What began among Nanjing University students in the 1990s as a tongue-in-cheek counter to Valentine’s Day has exploded into the world’s largest shopping event: Singles’ Day.

Singles’ Day is a $150B holiday in China. Here’s why I think ‘11/11’ will catch on in the US

11/04/2025 The Conversation News & Comments

Diane Keaton’s $5M pet trust would be over the top if reports prove true – here’s how to ensure your beloved pet is safe after you are gone

11/04/2025 The Conversation USA

Diane Keaton loved her dog, Reggie.

Minutes of the CBDC Engagement Forum - May 2025

11/04/2025 Bank of England Central banks

Meeting of the CBDC Engagement Forum

Bessent Plans to Attend Tariff Arguments at the Supreme Court

11/04/2025 New York Times USA

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed the idea that his presence could be seen as an attempt to intimidate the court on a case that President Trump considers vital to his economic policy.

Reputation for Confidence

11/04/2025 European Central Bank Central banks

We model how a central bank communicates its noisy forecasts (forward guidance) while taking into account its own uncertainty (confidence) and the public’s perception of the bank’s uncertainty (reputation for confidence). This creates a mismatch between the public and central bank’s interpretation of the bank announcement which induces the bank to communicate with partial transparency and deliberate imprecision. Moreover, with higher confidence (lower reputation) announcements are more precise.

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