Inputs in distress: geoeconomic fragmentation and firms’ sourcing

10/21/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

We study how disruptions to the supply of foreign critical inputs (FCIs) —that is, inputs primarily sourced from extra-EU countries with highly concentrated supply, advanced technology products, or which are key to the green transition —might affect value added at different levels of aggregation. Using firm-level customs and balance sheet data for Belgium, France, Italy, Slovenia and Spain, our framework allows us to assess how much geoeconomic fragmentation might affect European economies differently.

Variational inference for Bayesian panel VAR models

10/21/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

We study the application of approximate mean field variational inference algorithms to Bayesian panel VAR models in which an exchangeable prior is placed on the dynamic parameters and the residuals follow either a Gaussian or a Student-t distribution. This reduces the estimation time of possibly several hours using conventional MCMC methods to less than a minute using variational inference algorithms. Next to considerable speed improvements, our results show that the approximations accurately capture the dynamic effects of macroeconomic shocks as well as overall parameter uncertainty.

Inputs in distress: geoeconomic fragmentation and firms’ sourcing

10/21/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

We study how disruptions to the supply of foreign critical inputs (FCIs) —that is, inputs primarily sourced from extra-EU countries with highly concentrated supply, advanced technology products, or which are key to the green transition —might affect value added at different levels of aggregation. Using firm-level customs and balance sheet data for Belgium, France, Italy, Slovenia and Spain, our framework allows us to assess how much geoeconomic fragmentation might affect European economies differently.

Variational inference for Bayesian panel VAR models

10/21/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

We study the application of approximate mean field variational inference algorithms to Bayesian panel VAR models in which an exchangeable prior is placed on the dynamic parameters and the residuals follow either a Gaussian or a Student-t distribution. This reduces the estimation time of possibly several hours using conventional MCMC methods to less than a minute using variational inference algorithms. Next to considerable speed improvements, our results show that the approximations accurately capture the dynamic effects of macroeconomic shocks as well as overall parameter uncertainty.

How your online world could change if big tech companies like Google are forced to break up

10/18/2024 The Conversation UK

vectorfusionart/ShutterstockThe US Department of Justice may be on the verge of seeking a break-up of Google in a bid to make it less dominant. If the government goes ahead and is successful in the courts, it could mean the company being split into separate entities – a search engine, an advertising company, a video website, a mapping app – which would not be allowed to share data with each other.

Climate capitalists

10/18/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

Firms’ perceived cost of green capital has decreased since the rise of sustainable investing. Green and brown firms perceived their cost of capital to be the same before 2016, but after the post-2016 surge in sustainable investing, green firms perceived their cost of capital to be on average 1 percentage point lower. This difference has widened as sustainable investing has intensified. Within some of the largest energy and utility firms, managers have started applying a lower cost of capital to greener divisions.

Monetary policy and growth-at-risk: the role of institutional quality

10/18/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

This paper analyses how country-specific institutional quality shapes the impact of monetary policy on downside risks to GDP growth in the euro area. Using identified high-frequency shocks in a growth-at-risk framework, we show that monetary policy has a higher impact on downside risks in the short term than in the medium term. However, this result for the euro area average hides significant heterogeneity across countries. In economies with weak institutional quality, medium-term growth risks increase substantially following contractionary monetary policy shocks.

Climate capitalists

10/18/2024 European Central Bank Central banks

Firms’ perceived cost of green capital has decreased since the rise of sustainable investing. Green and brown firms perceived their cost of capital to be the same before 2016, but after the post-2016 surge in sustainable investing, green firms perceived their cost of capital to be on average 1 percentage point lower. This difference has widened as sustainable investing has intensified. Within some of the largest energy and utility firms, managers have started applying a lower cost of capital to greener divisions.

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