Financial institutions

IFDP Paper: Retail inventories and inflation dynamics: The price margin channel

Neil Mehrotra, Hyunseung Oh, and Julio L. OrtizUsing industry-level panel data and plausibly exogenous variation in supply conditions, we estimate the elasticity of retail price margins with respect to inventories along the retailer's optimal pricing curve. We find that this elasticity is negative and statistically significant, implying that lower finished-good inventories lead to higher price margins.

FEDS Paper: Decomposing Recent Employment Gains Among Disabled Workers

Hsinyu (Samuel) Tseng, Douglas A. WebberWe use the longitudinal component of the Current Population Survey to compare transition rates into and out of disability and employment prior to and after the onset of the pandemic. We find that one-third of the increased employment rate among disabled people is due to the excess incidence of disability seen following the pandemic, while the other two-thirds is attributable to higher participation among people whose disabilities were unrelated to the pandemic.

Decomposing US economic fluctuations: a trend-cycle approach

This paper proposes a unified framework to study the permanent and transitory origins of US economic fluctuations. The model provides a reasonable account of the evolution of the economy in the post-war period and of the recent inflation episode. Overall, it constitutes a comprehensive framework to offer policy guidance and a flexible empirical counterpart to more heavily-parametrized structural models.

Inflation and monetary policy in medium-sized New Keynesian DSGE models

This chapter of the Research Handbook of Inflation (2025) reviews the evolution and current relevance of medium-scale New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models, which serve as part of the core analytical framework in central banks and academic macroeconomics. The chapter assesses their capacity to analyse inflation dynamics, monetary transmission mechanisms, and policy interventions.

Fiscal drag in theory and in practice: a European perspective

This paper presents a comprehensive characterization of “fiscal drag”—the increase in tax revenue that occurs when nominal tax bases grow but nominal parameters of progressive tax legislation are not updated accordingly—across 21 European countries using a microsimulationapproach. First, we estimate tax-to-base elasticities, showing that the progressivity built in each country’s personal income tax system induces elasticities around 1.7–2 for many countries, indicating a potential for large fiscal drag effects.

Details matter – how loan pricing affects monetary policy transmission in the euro area

We present novel empirical evidence on lending practices across all euro area countries, using AnaCredit data covering nearly seven million new loans issued to non-financial corporations in 2022-23. We document substantial variation in (a) the prevalence of fixed versus floating-rate loans, (b) rate fixation periods, and (c) reference rates. This variation results in lending rates being exposed to different segments of the risk-free rate yield curve which, in turn, influences their sensitivity to monetary policy changes.

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