Financial institutions

The increasing energy demand of artificial intelligence and its impact on commodity prices

The use of artificial intelligence (AI) models has grown rapidly in recent years. This box explores how these models could affect energy demand in the future. Over the period from 2022 to 2026, the AI-related rise in global electricity consumption is projected to equal around 4% of the EU’s total electricity consumption and is likely to be met by either natural gas power plants or renewables. While this increase is significant in absolute terms, it is expected to have a limited impact on gas prices given the vast size of global natural gas markets.

Insights from banks and firms on euro area credit conditions: a comparison based on ECB surveys

This box examines euro area credit conditions from the perspective of banks and firms. The analysis uses data from the bank lending survey and the survey on the access to finance of enterprises. By offering qualitative insights into credit supply and demand, these surveys complement hard data in analysing how monetary policy is transmitted to firms through banks. The respective survey findings confirm that the general economic outlook and firm-specific conditions are significant factors affecting credit standards and the availability of bank loans.

Using corporate earnings calls to forecast euro area labour demand

This box explores the use of corporate earnings calls as a novel, high-frequency source of data for nowcasting and forecasting labour demand in the euro area. Labour demand has started to show signs of cooling following its post-pandemic peak. By applying textual analysis to transcripts of earnings calls, we construct an indicator that correlates strongly with the euro area job vacancy rate. This metric enables us to produce timely forecasts ahead of official data releases. Utilising a mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regression approach, we use this indicator to forecast the job vacancy rate.

Have euro area exports missed the tech train?

This box compares euro area export performance in high-tech sectors with that of China and the United States. While the euro area has maintained market share in several fast-growing high-tech sectors, it has underperformed in large medium-high-tech sectors. The latter, by virtue of their size, drive overall export growth and account for most of the euro area’s losses and China’s gains in export market shares.

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