Financial institutions

IFDP Paper: Monetary Policy without Moving Interest Rates: The Fed Non-Yield Shock

Christoph E. Boehm and T. Niklas KronerExisting high-frequency monetary policy shocks explain surprisingly little variation in stock prices and exchange rates around FOMC announcements. Further, both of these asset classes display heightened volatility relative to non-announcement times. We use a heteroskedasticity-based procedure to estimate a “Fed non-yield shock”, which is orthogonal to yield changes and is identified from excess volatility in the S&P 500 and various dollar exchange rates.

FEDS Paper: Targeted Relief: Geography and Timing of Emergency Rental Assistance

Theodore F. Figinski, Sydney Keenan, Richard Sweeney, and Erin TrolandIn response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Congress established the Emergency Rental Assistance (ERA) program, which provided nearly $45 billion to prevent evictions and increase housing stability. We provide new evidence on the implementation of ERA by examining the fine-grained geographic distribution of ERA funds and the timing of ERA expenditures by state and local governments.

FEDS Paper: Why Have Long-term Treasury Yields Fallen Since the 1980s? Expected Short Rates and Term Premiums in (Quasi-) Real Time

Michael T. KileyTreasury yields have fallen since the 1980s. Standard decompositions of Treasury yields into expected short-term interest rates and term premiums suggest term premiums account for much of the decline. In an alternative real-time decomposition, term premiums have fluctuated in a stable range, while long-run expected short-term interest rates have fallen. For example, a real-time decomposition of the 10-yr.

FEDS Paper: What Can Measured Beliefs Tell Us About Monetary Non-Neutrality?

Hassan Afrouzi, Joel P. Flynn, Choongryul YangThis paper studies how measured beliefs can be used to identify monetary non-neutrality. In a general equilibrium model with both nominal rigidities and endogenous information acquisition, we analytically characterize firms’ optimal dynamic information policies and how their beliefs affect monetary non-neutrality.

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