In an application to quarterly US data on loan charge-offs from 1985 to 2019, we find that financial-cycle indicators – notably, the debt service ratio and credit-to-GDP gap – deliver reliable real-time forecasts, signalling turning points up to three years in advance.
We investigate the links among US monetary policy, bank capital, and risk taking in international bank lending.
Using country-to-country data, this paper documents a set of novel stylized facts about the rise of the South in global finance.
This blog is written by NIESR Fellow Huw Dixon. Any opinions expressed in the paper are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute
Summary
The CPILW fell slightly from 0.9% in October to 0.7% in November. The CPIH measure of inflation also decreased from 0.9% in October 2020 to 0.6% in November. Both measures indicate a fall in inflation in November.
From data reporting to data-sharing: how far can suptech and other innovations challenge the status quo of regulatory reporting?, FSI Insights No 29, December 2020.
Using panel data covering 180 countries over six decades, this paper shows that recessions are systematically associated with higher mortality rates. During years when GDP falls, death rates rise, primarily in emerging market and developing economies and there among children in particular.
BIS Papers No 113, December 2020. Financial markets are an important component in the transmission of monetary policy and play a key role in fostering financial stability. Financial market development (FMD) aims at enhancing the capacity of the financial system to pool domestic savings and foreign capital in funding investment and consumption, and at enabling efficient risk-sharing. Deep and liquid markets promote transparent and efficient pricing of assets, ...
Countries with a stronger predicted GDP decline in 2020 have also seen a larger number of deaths in excess of official Covid-19 fatalities. Historical data show that recessions are systematically associated with higher mortality, especially in developing economies. Following a recession, death rates remain elevated for several years. The eventual death toll of Covid-19 may be understated if the impact of the pandemic-induced recession is neglected. Limiting the economic fallout of the pandemic could also reduce excess mortality.
Global warming is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme or abnormal weather events (Herring et al, 2018, NASEM, 2016). In this note, we quantify the uncertainty of GDP outcomes resulting from abnormal weather events, considering both the initial destruction that is caused by the event as well as the boost to activity from the subsequent rebuild.
We study the effectiveness of policy tools that deal with bank distress (i.e. central bank lending, asset purchases, bank liability guarantees, impaired asset segregation schemes). We present and draw on a novel database that tracks the use of such tools in 29 countries between 1980 and 2016.
