We study the dynamic properties of sovereign bonds in emerging market economies and their associated risk premiums. We focus on the properties of credit spreads, exchange rates, and their interaction.
Trade tensions between China and US have played an important role in swinging global stock markets but effects are difficult to quantify. We develop a novel trade sentiment index (TSI) based on textual analysis and machine learning applied on a big data pool that assesses the positive or negative tone of the Chinese media coverage, and evaluates its capacity to explain the behaviour of 60 global equity markets.
E-commerce has ramped up during the pandemic around the world. The growth has differed across sectors and over different stages of the pandemic. Novel data sources can help to follow these trends. The growth of e-commerce has been higher in countries where there were more stringent containment measures and where e-commerce was initially less developed. Some changes in consumers' shopping habits and payment behaviour may be longer-lasting. This may have implications for structural change and the growth of the digital economy.
Following periods of intense technological innovation, R&D is a critical driver of technology diffusion, but it is subject to frictions that can lower it below the level firms would undertake otherwise. We study whether sentiment can counterbalance these frictions and thus strengthen the link between firm-level R&D and lagged aggregate innovation. We find a positive answer for low-tech firms, which represent the main conduit for technology diffusion.
This paper studies inflation globalisation in the European emerging countries by measuring inflation co-movement across the region and assessing how local inflation rates reacted to global factors.
This paper investigates how recent demographic changes – population aging and the rising number of single-person households – affect house price growth using 95 district-level data in Korea from Q1 2008 to Q4 2017.
In an application to quarterly US data on loan charge-offs from 1985 to 2019, we find that financial-cycle indicators – notably, the debt service ratio and credit-to-GDP gap – deliver reliable real-time forecasts, signalling turning points up to three years in advance.
We investigate the links among US monetary policy, bank capital, and risk taking in international bank lending.
Using country-to-country data, this paper documents a set of novel stylized facts about the rise of the South in global finance.
