Ricardo's threads | Nothing contributes so much to the prosperity and happiness of a country as high profits

Trade sentiment and the stock market: new evidence based on big data textual analysis of Chinese media

01/12/2021 BIS International

Trade tensions between China and US have played an important role in swinging global stock markets but effects are difficult to quantify. We develop a novel trade sentiment index (TSI) based on textual analysis and machine learning applied on a big data pool that assesses the positive or negative tone of the Chinese media coverage, and evaluates its capacity to explain the behaviour of 60 global equity markets.

E-commerce in the pandemic and beyond

01/12/2021 BIS International

E-commerce has ramped up during the pandemic around the world. The growth has differed across sectors and over different stages of the pandemic. Novel data sources can help to follow these trends. The growth of e-commerce has been higher in countries where there were more stringent containment measures and where e-commerce was initially less developed. Some changes in consumers' shopping habits and payment behaviour may be longer-lasting. This may have implications for structural change and the growth of the digital economy.

Learning from the past to support schools in the future – lessons from lockdown

01/11/2021 National Institute of Economic and Social Research UK

Firm-level R&D after periods of intense technological innovation: the role of investor sentiment

01/08/2021 BIS International

Following periods of intense technological innovation, R&D is a critical driver of technology diffusion, but it is subject to frictions that can lower it below the level firms would undertake otherwise. We study whether sentiment can counterbalance these frictions and thus strengthen the link between firm-level R&D and lagged aggregate innovation. We find a positive answer for low-tech firms, which represent the main conduit for technology diffusion.

The globalisation of inflation in the European emerging countries

12/22/2020 BIS International

This paper studies inflation globalisation in the European emerging countries by measuring inflation co-movement across the region and assessing how local inflation rates reacted to global factors.

Demographic shifts, macroprudential policies, and house prices

12/22/2020 BIS International

This paper investigates how recent demographic changes – population aging and the rising number of single-person households – affect house price growth using 95 district-level data in Korea from Q1 2008 to Q4 2017.

Forecasting expected and unexpected losses

12/21/2020 BIS International

In an application to quarterly US data on loan charge-offs from 1985 to 2019, we find that financial-cycle indicators – notably, the debt service ratio and credit-to-GDP gap – deliver reliable real-time forecasts, signalling turning points up to three years in advance.

Regulatory capital, market capital and risk taking in international bank lending

12/18/2020 BIS International

We investigate the links among US monetary policy, bank capital, and risk taking in international bank lending.

Bilateral International Investments: the Big Sur?

12/17/2020 BIS International

Using country-to-country data, this paper documents a set of novel stylized facts about the rise of the South in global finance.

The Lockdown Weighted inflation CPILW for November 2020

12/16/2020 National Institute of Economic and Social Research UK

This blog is written by NIESR Fellow Huw Dixon. Any opinions expressed in the paper are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute

Summary
The CPILW fell slightly from 0.9% in October to 0.7% in November. The CPIH measure of inflation also decreased from 0.9% in October 2020 to 0.6% in November. Both measures indicate a fall in inflation in November.

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