Learning from the past to support schools in the future – lessons from lockdown
Firm-level R&D after periods of intense technological innovation: the role of investor sentiment
Following periods of intense technological innovation, R&D is a critical driver of technology diffusion, but it is subject to frictions that can lower it below the level firms would undertake otherwise. We study whether sentiment can counterbalance these frictions and thus strengthen the link between firm-level R&D and lagged aggregate innovation. We find a positive answer for low-tech firms, which represent the main conduit for technology diffusion.
The globalisation of inflation in the European emerging countries
This paper studies inflation globalisation in the European emerging countries by measuring inflation co-movement across the region and assessing how local inflation rates reacted to global factors.
Demographic shifts, macroprudential policies, and house prices
This paper investigates how recent demographic changes – population aging and the rising number of single-person households – affect house price growth using 95 district-level data in Korea from Q1 2008 to Q4 2017.
Forecasting expected and unexpected losses
In an application to quarterly US data on loan charge-offs from 1985 to 2019, we find that financial-cycle indicators – notably, the debt service ratio and credit-to-GDP gap – deliver reliable real-time forecasts, signalling turning points up to three years in advance.
Regulatory capital, market capital and risk taking in international bank lending
We investigate the links among US monetary policy, bank capital, and risk taking in international bank lending.
Bilateral International Investments: the Big Sur?
Using country-to-country data, this paper documents a set of novel stylized facts about the rise of the South in global finance.
The Lockdown Weighted inflation CPILW for November 2020
This blog is written by NIESR Fellow Huw Dixon. Any opinions expressed in the paper are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute
Summary
The CPILW fell slightly from 0.9% in October to 0.7% in November. The CPIH measure of inflation also decreased from 0.9% in October 2020 to 0.6% in November. Both measures indicate a fall in inflation in November.
From data reporting to data-sharing: how far can suptech and other innovations challenge the status quo of regulatory reporting?
From data reporting to data-sharing: how far can suptech and other innovations challenge the status quo of regulatory reporting?, FSI Insights No 29, December 2020.
Recessions and mortality: a global perspective
Using panel data covering 180 countries over six decades, this paper shows that recessions are systematically associated with higher mortality rates. During years when GDP falls, death rates rise, primarily in emerging market and developing economies and there among children in particular.
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