Analysis of large-scale conflicts over the past 30 years can shed light on the range of possible economic outcomes for Ukraine. This column shows that, in general, the impact on GDP is very large, persisting even ten years after conflict onset, and affects all sectors of the economy. This is overwhelmingly driven by declines in private consumption and official trade. In addition, large-scale conflicts often lead to persistent long-term refugee outflows to both neighbouring non-advanced economies (given the location of most conflict-affected countries) and non-neighbouring advanced economies. As such, policies to absorb refugees and facilitate post-war reconstruction need to be long-term as well.
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